Comparing the MLB and NFL Drafts
It wasn't the sole reason the Red Sox lost, 4-3, to the Mariners Thursday afternoon. And it isn't the be-all, end-all when identifying why the Red Sox can't seem to exit out of their good-but-not-great existence.
But Rafael Devers' struggles sure aren't making things any easier.
As they were reminded during the season-opening stretch when Devers struck out in 15 of his first 19 at-bats, the Red Sox' foundation is built on the back of Devers. That's why he is making $27 million this season, making up the second-highest percentage of the Sox payroll (only after Alex Bregman).
After Devers' 0-for-4 in the series finale, the numbers don't paint the kind of picture the Red Sox were counting on. He is hitting .194 with a .657 OPS, having now gone 1-for-16 in close-and-late situations.
Yes, the designate hitter is mastering the strike zone better than any point in his career, leading the American League in walks. But that really hasn't scratched where the Red Sox truly itch.
They need Devers to be that guy opponents fear in games like Thursday. That certainly didn't seem the case when he stepped to the plate with one out, his team down by a run and Seattle reliever Gabe Speier on the mound.
This pitcher who Devers had notched three hits against in his only three at-bats facing him simply blew away the DH, needing four fastballs to end the at-bat with a strikeout. It has become an all-too-familiar scenario for a player and a team expecting so much more.
The results of Devers' first 27 games have been head-scratching, especially looking back at last year after the same number of games. A year ago during the first one-fifth of season he had totaled an .870 OPS while hitting .280, without the kind of lineup protection he is currently enjoying thanks to Alex Bregman.
What isn't confusing is the path teams are taking to lean into Devers' downturn.
No player in baseball has seen more pitches 93 mph or better than he has, totaling 234 compared to runner-up Austin Riley's 198. It's a number than makes sense considering he is hitting just .167 on four-seam fastballs, striking out 24 times in the 60 occasions his at-bats have finished on the pitch.
Only three players in baseball have swung and missed at a higher percentage than Devers' clip of 38.7 percent. It's a rate that dwarfs the 28-year-old's previous seasons, having only eclipsed 30.9 percent once, with that coming in the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign (31.7 percent).
At the same time, when he does make contact he has virtually never hit the ball harder, coming in with a career-best 60.9 hard-hit rate to this point.
The problem is actually hitting the baseball.
According to Baseball Savant, Devers has swung and missed at 44 pitches in what is considered the heart of the strike zone. The next most in all of baseball is Minnesota's Matt Wallner, who has done it 25 times.
The Red Sox are certainly more equipped to weather Devers' downturns this time around. But the reality is that if they are to get where they want to go, living life among baseball's elite, the familiar presence their DH has always offered needs to return.
"Dominating in the strike zone but swinging and missing in the strike zone, and that’s something we have to work on, mechanics-wise," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora after his club fell to 14-13. "The group is grinding, he is grinding. He knows it. Hopefully we find it in Cleveland."