How much would you pay to see the New England Patriots try to be great?
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That’s essentially the question posed by the possibility of a trade for Bengals receiver Tee Higgins.
Pro Football Focus’ Brad Spielberger proposed a hypothetical trade that might get the job to bring Higgins to town: a first-round pick in 2023 and a 2024 fourth-rounder. (His scenario has the Detroit Lions making that leap to get the fourth-year receiver.)
That’s almost the same deal the Philadelphia Eagles made last year for A.J. Brown, who revolutionized the offense along with the already drafted DeVonta Smith. (Philly traded the 18th pick and the 101st pick — a fourth-rounder — for Brown in 2022.)
Of course, that doesn’t account for the massive payday that Higgins would command if you wanted to pay him. Again, for reference: Brown, who was on the last year of his rookie deal like Higgins, got a new four-year, $100 million contract before even walking in the door with the Eagles. Higgins would almost certainly get something similar from a team that trades for him.
That’s a very steep price for the Patriots to pay to get what they hope is a No. 1 receiver.
Here’s why they should be willing to do it for Higgins.
As much as New England has needs elsewhere, especially offensive tackle, not one player they draft at No. 14 overall or anywhere else they would pick in the first round -- not even Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. -- would improve the team as much as Higgins can.
You can sign a right tackle in free agency to shore up the position, and you can draft a solid tackle or corner on Day 2 that can contribute right away. There are also a number of solid receivers you can get at a fraction of the cost in the first round instead of Higgins.
But not one of them will move the needle the way a bonafide No. 1 receiver can. Higgins is that, make no mistake.
Only on a team with Ja’Marr Chase, who’s one of the three best receivers in football, can you have back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with six or more touchdown catches and not be the best receiver on the roster. But lest you think Higgins is only good because Chase is there, think again: he led the team with 908 yards and six scores as a rookie in 2020, the year before Chase was drafted.
He owns the ninth-best Pro Football Focus receiving grade against man coverage in the league (87.3) among receivers with 10 or more targets, and his 110.6 passer rating when targeted is 14th in the NFL.
Give Higgins the lion’s share of the targets, and he’s going to put up No. 1-type numbers because that’s just what he does.
Now, why would you go all-in on Higgins with this particular team, which is probably more than just one player away? And why do it for Mac Jones, whom the jury is still out on, when you wouldn’t make a move like this even for Tom Brady?
Firstly, there’s always the fear that giving up a draft pick for a current player is forfeiting a lottery ticket to someone who will eventually become infinitely better for a less-exciting commodity we already know. Draft picks are a mystery box. Who knows? Maybe one of them could even become Tee Higgins!
But again, you don’t know that they will, and you have three years of Tee Higgins that show you what he is.
Next, look no further than how much similar moves for Brown, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill have helped Jalen Hurts (who just balled out in a Super Bowl), Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa coming into make-or-break third seasons. No one was 100 percent sold on those guys either. But instead of throwing in the towel and starting over again with a new rookie, their teams invested and reaped the benefits for their young passers.
We've seen Jones thrive as a rookie with a good offensive coordinator without great skill players before Bill Belichick decided to deprive the young quarterback of both those helping hands in Year 2. Can we at least see him with a full deck before throwing him out with the bathwater? (If the freaking Lions would do such a deal with basically the expensive version of Mac Jones at quarterback in Jared Goff, it would be offensive for New England to turn up its nose on principle.)
Beyond just the benefit of Jones, though, a Higgins trade represents a clear effort toward winning in the modern NFL.
Trading for players like an aging DeAndre Hopkins or Brandin Cooks makes the team better, but not with the level of upside the youth and untapped potential Higgins does.
Choosing to go with half-measures or simply punting because New England isn’t sold on Jones is simply settling for being the third or fourth-best team in the division until Bill Belichick retires or Josh Allen starts falling off at the worst. That’s unacceptable.
(If nothing else, you could still have Higgins and a solid roster foundation if you did choose to move on from Jones this year or next. Plus, if you want to structure it so that you could move on from Higgins’ contract by the time Jones’ fifth-year option was up, you could do that.)
Whether it’s a high draft pick at receiver or a trade, the Patriots have to do more for Jones than simply giving him Bill O’Brien as an offensive coordinator. As important as it is to protect Jones, an offensive tackle can’t rack up 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. No one's asking the Patriots to neglect the protection; there's just too much evidence that receivers are more valuable in today's league to ignore.
If New England really wanted to throw all its chips on Jones’ rookie contract and truly try to compete for a title in Belichick’s waning years, though, betting on Higgins is the way to do it. You can't keep limping into the pot with a "good" rather than "great" team on a quarterback's rookie contract and thinking coaching is enough to get you to the payout.
Nothing risked, nothing gained.
None of this, of course, might end up mattering if the Bengals can reach a deal with Higgins to stay in town. It certainly sounds like he wants to be in Cincinnati. But if it's at all possible to swing this trade and the Patriots aren't involved, you have to question if they're really invested in winning -- or if they even remember how at this point.