Wednesday presents a full slate of college basketball, including four ranked teams on the road and possibly on upset alert. However, value in sports betting isn't always found at the top of the card, but digging in a bit deeper.
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There are strong matchups, including a battle of Big East clubs fighting to stay above .500 with Providence playing host to Marquette. Both team's are off losses and sit at 8-7 in a crowded conference. Let's break it down:
Marquette at Providence (-1.5, 139) - 7 PM EST, CBSSports Network
This feels like the right time to buy low on Ed Cooley and the Friars. Look at the recent stretch for Providence, a four-game road swing that included games at Xavier, Marquette, Creighton, and Villanova.
Providence went 1-3 in that stretch with its lone win coming over Creighton in Omaha. Yes, the team lost to Marquette on January 12th, but since then the Golden Eagles have not done much to impress. Marquette squeezed out a win over St. John’s on the road before dropping a home game to DePaul, two of the bottom three teams in the conference.
To cut straight to the point, Marquette’s defense has fallen off a cliff. The team is allowing Big East opponents to shoot over 40% from three and boasts the 11th ranked defense in conference play, according to KenPom.
To counter, Providence has a balanced offensive attack, and is stroking it from deep. The team is shooting greater than 37% from three in Big East play on just the ninth highest three-point rate. This tells me the Friars will be able to get offense from all over the floor, but can attack from beyond the arc against a leaky Marquette defense.
Providence is not without faults - the defense ranks ninth in the league - but this team was able to knock off Creighton on the road last week in a notoriously difficult place to play. After that, they were up at half against Nova before the wheels fell off after the break. I see the Friars getting a boost playing at home for the first time since January 2nd.
It would also help if the club got St. Joseph transfer guard Jared Bynum back in the lineup. He’s missed the last four games and would give the Friars a much needed ball handler. Jon Rothstein of CBSSports reported Wednesday morning that Bynum would be a game-time decision. If he plays, it makes me like Providence even more.
Providence has been more loose with the ball without Bynum, averaging two more turnovers per game in Big East play. Even if the guard doesn’t go, Marquette may not be able to take advantage, as the team is ranked 324th in opponent turnover rate this season.
Bynum or no Bynum, I still like Providence to cover inside of a bucket. Coming home after a long road trip, this feels like a get right spot for the Friars.
Pick: Providence -1.5, up to -2.
