The New Orleans Saints did all they could in Week 16 to improve their slim chances to make the 2022 postseason. Unfortunately, no one else cooperated.
What we can say is the Saints' 17-10 victory over the Browns in the coldest game in franchise history did keep hope alive for at least one more week. But that's the difficulty of letting your destiny get out of your own hands, it's not as simple as just winning.
With that said, while no results made things any easier, they didn't get a ton worse, either. The Saints' playoff road still sits at 2%, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections. The Bucs retain the highest odds at 69%, and the Panthers ticked a bit higher at 29%.
Here's how things stand in the divisional race heading into Week 17:
NFC SOUTH
1. Bucs 7-8 (defeated Cardinals 19-16 in OT)
2. Panthers 6-9 (defeated Lions 37-23)
3. Saints 6-9 (defeated Browns 17-10)
4. Falcons 5-10 (lost to Ravens 17-9/officially eliminated)
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WHAT'S THE ROAD?
While the Saints' road to the playoffs is as narrow as it gets, the positive thing you can say about it is that it's very simple.
- The Saints need to win their final two games (at Eagles; vs Panthers)
- The Saints need the Bucs to lose their final two games (vs Panthers; at Falcons)
POTENTIAL NFC SOUTH SCENARIO (Saints get in)
1. Saints: 8-9
2. Panthers: 7-10
3. Bucs: 7-10
4. Falcons: 6-11
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On the Saints' side of things, that got a bit more difficult heading into Week 17. The Eagles had a chance to clinch the top seed in the NFC, but fell to the Cowboys in a 40-34 in a thrilling game started by backup Gardner Minshew. An Eagles win would've meant the Saints got to face an Eagles team on New Year's Day with no standings motivation. But with the loss, that means the Saints have to face the class of the NFC with as much motivation than ever. Not only do they need to win to clinch the top seep in the NFC and earn the ability to rest in Week 18, another loss (coupled with a Cowboys win) would put them at risk of dropping the division and potentially going on the road in the first round of the playoffs, based on the results in Week 18.
It's unknown whether starting QB Jalen Hurts will return from his shoulder injury in Week 18, but the Saints will have to win that game against a top-tier team pushing their hardest. That scenario could've been better.
POTENTIAL NFC SOUTH SCENARIO (Bucs get in)
1. Bucs: 8-9
2. Saints: 8-9
3. Panthers: 7-10
4. Falcons: 6-11
On the other side of the equation, the Cardinals missed a golden opportunity to lend the Saints a head. Arizona, starting third-string QB Trace McSorley, led the Bucs 16-6 early in the 4th quarter, then allowed 13 unanswered points to blow the potential upset. It's not a shock that the Cards couldn't pull off a win, but it is a bummer for the Saints. A Cardinals win would've meant the Saints only needed the Panthers, a team that's already beaten the Bucs 21-3 earlier this season, to take down Tampa. The Saints now not only need that, they need a Falcons team that has now been eliminated from playoff contention to do that as well in the final game of the regular season.
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WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
The best-case scenario for the Saints involves rooting for their chief rival to help them out. That doesn't sound all that fun, does it? It's reminiscent of the last time a team got into the playoffs with a losing record. Washington faced the eliminated Eagles in Week 17 of the 2020 season, needing a win to sneak into the playoffs at 7-9. If Philadelphia won, the Giants would've gotten in. New York was peeved in the end, because the Eagles sat a majority of their starters in the second half of a close game. Would the Falcons do the same thing? It's certainly possible.
Interestingly enough, the shoe could potentially be on the other foot. Should the Saints lose to the Eagles in Week 17, they'll be eliminated from playoff contention regardless of what happens elsewhere, but that won't mean they're done impacting the NFC South race. A Bucs win over the Carolina Panthers would clinch Tom Brady's squad the division crown ... but a loss? Well, that'd mean the Saints hold the keys. The Bucs would need to beat the Falcons in Week 18, and hope the Saints defeat the Panthers at home. A Panthers win would punch their own ticket to the playoffs in that scenario.
POTENTIAL NFC SOUTH SCENARIO (Panthers get in)
- 1. Panthers: 8-9
- 2. Bucs: 8-9
- 3. Saints: 6-11
- 4. Falcons: 6-11
The Saints won't have the incentive of losing to improve their own first-round selection (like the Eagles did in 2020), but trolling Tom Brady by keeping him out of the playoffs would feel worth it, even if it improved the Eagles' pick. That's something you'll have to decide for yourself.
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WHAT ABOUT THAT FIRST-ROUND PICK?
There has been a lot of talk about the first-round pick the Saints will be sending to the Eagles this season, and for good reason. One thing the Saints can say is they're not alone in that regard. If the season ended today the Broncos would be sending the No. 3 overall pick to the Seahawks (Russell Wilson trade), the L.A. Rams would be sending the No. 7 overall pick to the Lions (Matt Stafford trade) and the Browns would be sending the No. 11 overall pick to the Texans (Deshaun Watson trade).
Quarterbacks sure are expensive, huh?
The Saints, meanwhile, are heading in the opposite direction, winning three of their last five games. If the season ended today, they'd be sending the No. 10 overall pick to the Eagles. It'd still be painful after such a dreadful season, but at least reasonable when weighed against the No. 19 overall selection that you added in the 2022 draft. It's a lot closer to a wash.
NFL DRAFT ORDER (as of Week 16/non-playoff teams)
-1. Texans: 2-12-1
- 2. Bears: 3-12
- 3. Seahawks (via Broncos): 4-11
- 4. Cardinals: 4-11
- 5. Colts: 4-9-1
- 6. Falcons: 5-10
- 7. Lions (via Rams): 5-10
- 8. Panthers: 6-9
- 9. Raiders: 6-9
- 10. Eagles (via Saints): 6-9
- 11. Texans (via Browns): 6-9
- 12. Seahawks: 7-8
- 13. Titans: 7-8
- 14. Patriots: 7-8
- 15. Jets: 7-8
- 16. Steelers: 7-8
- 17. Packers: 7-8
- 18. Lions: 7-8
But these final two games could mark a significant swing in that regard, regardless of whether they land in the postseason. The Saints are currently 6-9, along with three other teams (Panthers, Raiders, Browns). The next nine teams ahead of them in the standings are just one game better at 7-8 (Seahawks, Titans, Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Packers, Lions, Jaguars, Bucs). They can't all win out. An 8-9 finish would mean the Saints either make the playoffs and hand over no better than No. 19, or they most like give up something in the range of 15-18. Even a 7-10 finish would likely leave them somewhere in the mid-teens. In the sense of saving face in that deal, that's still a preferable scenario to forking over a top-10 pick to the best team in the conference.
There is a flipside to that, however. Even without a first-rounder, would you not be better off making sure your next selection is as good as it can be? It's a fair question, but only one you consider if you're eliminated from the playoffs. That won't be the case when Saints-Eagles kicks off at noon on New Year's Day. In Week 18? That could be a different story.