Many media types and fans decide what position a team needs most and pound on the table for that team to draft that position. Sometimes a name of a prospect isn’t even provided.
Some act as if when Texans GM Bill O’Brien submits his No. 40 overall selection next week he can just write, “We’d like to select an impact edge rusher that can pressure the QB and stop the run, but if that’s not available we’d also settle for a lockdown cornerback. Thanks. – Bill.”
Here are the reasons why King Bill should select a running back with the 40th pick.
The immediate and future impact some of the potentially available running backs could have is significant.
One of the best ways for a coach to mask the flaws of a defense is by keeping the defense off the field. How do you do that? By controlling the clock and increasing time of possession.
An elite running back that can run between the tackles and move the chains would increase time of possession and keep the defense off the field, which would be beneficial.
D’Andre Swift (Georgia), Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) are strong options at running back, if available.
In his latest mock draft ESPN’s Todd McShay doesn’t have a running back being selected until 32nd overall, when Swift is selected by Kansas City.
Here’s McShay’s explanation: “Swift is the No. 13 prospect on my board, but there just weren't many spots in Round 1 to slot him, so the Chiefs are able to add him all the way back at No. 32. While the defensive back woes for the Super Bowl champions are overwhelming this pick becomes too easy.”
The value at running back should be extremely high.
You always hear about how easy it is to find running backs. Even this week when I was discussing this with my 610 teammate Ron “Show” Hughley, he mentioned how easy it was get to get a running back and mentioned Seattle running back Chris Carson, who was a seventh round pick in 2017.
Carson was fifth in the league in rushing, which is impressive.
However, the four guys ahead of him were all early-round selections: Derrick Henry (1st), Nick Chubb (2nd), Christian McCaffrey (1st) and Ezekiel Elliot (1st).
In fact, of the top 10 running backs in rushing yards last season, eight of them were selected in the first two rounds.
Leonard Fournette and Josh Jacobs were first-rounders; Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook were second rounders.
Only Marlon Mack (4th) and Carson were selected outside of the second round.
I didn’t even mention Saquon Barkley, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft, who was banged-up last season after leading the NFL in all purpose years his rookie season.
Yes, there are exceptions to every position, but the best backs in the NFL right now were selected in the first two rounds.
Johnson can help the Texans offense, but to what extent?
If O’Brien believes Johnson can carry a heavy load and return to his 2016 form, then more power to him. If he’s right, then he’s going to look very smart.
Logic would tell you that the financial investment to Johnson means he will be relied on heavily in 2020, but logic also appears to be rare with some of the moves that have been made this offseason.
The Texans should’ve never taken back Johnson’s money and expecting Johnson to carry a heavy load seems risky at best. Ignoring the opportunity to get an elite back at 40 because of this line of thinking would be allowing two mistakes to turn into three.
Teams in the NFL are using three running backs effectively on the biggest stage, which is where O’Brien says he’s trying to get, “winning games in January.”
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O’Brien has been accused of trying to copy the Patriots. The Patriots use an array of running backs with different skillsets.
Most recently, they selected Sony Michel in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Could I interest you in some stats?
In the 2018 AFC Championship, the New England Patriots beat the Chiefs in Kansas City 37-31 in overtime.
Sony Michel had 29 carries for 113 yards and two touchdowns.
Rex Burkhead had 12 carries for 41 yards and two TDs, including the game-winning TD in overtime, along with four catches for 23 yards.
James White, who led the team in receptions during the regular season, had four catches for 49 yards.
When the Eagles upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl they also used three backs heavily.
LeGarrette Blount had 14 carries for 90 yards and a TD.
Jay Ajayi had nine carries for 57 yards.
Corey Clement had four catches for 100 yards and a TD.
Three running backs with differing skillsets when used correctly can win games in January.
Many players, scouts and coaches I talk to insist that it’s easier to evaluate running backs than any other position. They’re not saying it’s easy, but just easier.
Forgive me for having trust issues with O’Brien running his first draft, but after seeing his first free agent period and the moves he has made this offseason, can you blame me?
Getting an impact player at No. 40 is important and I want it to be as easy as possible for O’Brien.
Draft a running back at 40, King Bill. Do the right thing.