Analyzing Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers 1 Month From Start of NFL Season

July 29 ADP: Round 2, Pick 11
August 10 ADP: Round 1, Pick 6

Damien Williams took a very responsible route ahead of the 2020 season, deciding to opt out in order to spend time with and take care of his mother who was diagnosed with cancer. His decision leaves Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who the Chiefs selected in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, as the seemingly unquestioned No. 1 running back. As expected, his stock soared.

Too high, too low or just right?

Did his stock soar too high? Nah. The best running back on the best offensive team in the NFL is usually a recipe for success, especially when the lead back goes from an undrafted runner to a highly-touted, first-round beast with experience against some of the best college defenses around. I’d take him behind McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, Cook… and that may be it.

July 26 ADP: Round 5, Pick 11
August 10 ADP: Round 5, Pick 3

Mostert’s ADP reached a low point on July 26 amid trade requests and unhappiness from the 2019 breakout running back and his agent.

However, it was at that low point that his ADP reversed its trajectory and went back up, thanks to news that Mostert and the 49ers had finalized a new deal. Now, it seems as though his ADP has plateaued in the early fifth round.

Too high, too low or just right?

Just right. I expect him to be the primary running back again, but with the departure of Matt Breida comes the return of Jerick McKinnon, who reportedly looks good in the passing game (via Mercury News). Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson Jr. are also still hanging around, and so the 49ers depth will continue to restrict Mostert’s ceiling. Guys being selected nearby, including Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary and Kareem Hunt, don’t seem so much better or so much worse so as to make Mostert’s current ADP overly questionable.

July 16 ADP: Round 6, Pick 7
August 10 ADP: Round 6, Pick 3

It’s not a huge difference, but in looking at the graph, you can see the slow and steady increase in support for A.J. Green over the past few weeks. There hasn’t been much news surrounding the veteran wideout, other than the fact that he’s back on the field and taking reps with rookie Joe Burrow.

Too high, too low or just right?

Just right. I normally don’t want to use a quality pick on someone whose health is a big question mark, or on someone who’s on the wrong side of 30, especially not when names like Stefon Diggs and Marquise Brown are the ones around him. But Green's ceiling is way too high, and I could definitely pay for passing up on Green at this point. If you don't have a boom-or-bust player on your team at this point, going with Green here would be fine. If you're looking for a more sturdy presence, it may be smarter to go with someone without all the durability baggage.

August 6 ADPs: Round 10, Pick 7 (Gibson) and Round 14, Pick 6 (Peterson)
August 10 ADPs: Round 9, Pick 1(Gibson) and Round 12, Pick 11 (Peterson)

The disturbing news that Derrius Guice had strangled his girlfriend promptly resulted in his release from Washington, which is another part of Ron Rivera’s quest to change the culture around the troubled franchise. Guice was expected to be the No. 1 running back, though Gibson’s versatility was always going to play a role, and Adrian Peterson, even at his old age, still figured to have a part. With Guice deservedly out of the picture, both players saw an ADP boost.

Too high, too low or just right?

Too low, but that may be because Fantasy Football Calculator’s algorithms are still adjusting to the news. Gibson is a guy I’d feel comfortable drafting in the eighth round, with a high ceiling and pass-catching responsibilities very likely coming his way without Chris Thompson in town. Peterson isn’t someone I’d go crazy for, but he could actually see the bulk of the work for quite some time while Gibson gets acclimated, meaning he could continue to produce as he did in 2019. I’d be willing to go to the 11th round for a solid, steady presence like AP.

July 23 ADP: Round 10, Pick 8
August 10 ADP: Round 9, Pick 11

Early in the offseason, there was some concern about whether or not the Raiders’ explosive rookie would be ready to go for the season after injuring himself while moving furniture. However, he seems to be ready to go.

Plays like this one certainly don’t hurt his stock either.

Too high, too low or just right?

Just right. He’s the perfect blend of high ceiling, low floor, unknown offense to be a guy you feel fortunate to snag in the ninth round and that will more than likely deliver on a few occasions… but it’s knowing when those occasions are going to be that will allow you to get the most use out of him. For best ball leagues, he’s a no-brainer in the late ninth.

July 23 ADP: Round 5, Pick 4
August 10 ADP: Round 6, Pick 1

Things were looking up for Akers, as his ADP had trended from the back-end of Round 5 toward the front to begin July. However, that optimism was no longer as justifiable after Sean McVey made the worst fantasy football proclamation imaginable: the Rams would deploy a running back-by-committee approach.

Too high, too low or just right?

Too high, even after falling. Ugh. I hate situations like this, and this one especially feels like any one of these guys -- or none of these guys -- could emerge as the primary name. Henderson is only in his second year, and they really lauded him last season… but then why would they draft Akers? And Brown has been solid if a little boring, so he’s in the race too. I’d rather go with someone like J.K. Dobbins or D’Andre Swift, two other rookie getting drafted at a similar point in the draft to Akers.

August 4 ADP: Round 5, Pick 4
August 10 ADP: Round 5, Pick 9

Dropping five slots in six days came after the Colts announced they were adding Hilton to the injury list.

He played through some lingering injuries last year, too, and always seemed to be accompanied by that big, fat, red Q. However, things seem to be looking up.

Too high, too low or just right?

Too low. I’d expect his ADP to go back up soon, and though Philip Rivers may not be what he once was, he should certainly be a boost for the offense after Jacoby Brissett ran the show last season. Though I don’t love A.J. Green this year because he’s 32 and coming off a big injury, I do love the 31-year-old T.Y. Hilton. Jonathan Taylor and co. will take pressure off the passing game, and rookie Michael Pittman can help take pressure off of the perennial 1,000-yard threat.

August 3 ADP: Round 7, Pick 12
August 10 ADP: Round 9, Pick 7

His ADP is probably going to keep plummeting, too, for a couple reasons. It’s pretty understandable that the team’s signing of LeSean McCoy dims Vaughn’s prospects quite a bit, as the veteran runner will certainly compete for carries. And besides, Vaughn’s role with the team was a little precarious to begin with, as he was slated to be the backup to Ronald Jones and missed valuable camp time on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Too high, too low or just right?

A little bit too low. I don't love selecting such a low-floor player over guys like Boston Scott and Duke Johnson (currently 11th round ADP), especially in a PPR setting. And Bruce Arians really seems to be into Ronald Jones this year, which doesn’t make me feel any better. However, so long as he's not one of your starting running backs -- which I sincerely hope isn't the case by Round 9 -- he's worth keeping on your bench in hopes that he becomes the starter in a high-powered offense.

July 21 ADP: Round 12, Pick 2
August 10 ADP: Round 13, Pick 11

After the Patriots signed Cam Newton, Harry’s ADP went from the end of Round 13 to the front of Round 12, only to fall all the way back down again. The buzz surrounding him, however, has been positive, as former wideout Nate Burleson called him a breakout candidate.

Too high, too low or just right?

Too low. Who knows which wide receiver Cam Newton/Jarrett Stidham will share the strongest connection with? It’s not a given it will be with Julian Edelman, as has been the case for years, and N’Keal Harry seems to be the weapon with the most untapped potential that they have on an otherwise uninspiring group of pass-catchers.

I’d happily take a flyer on Harry at the end of the 13th round.