The Astros are trying to become the first team since the 2000 Yankees to consecutive World Series, and they enter the 2023 as a favorite to do so, but there are questions to be answered if they want to claim their third World Series crown in seven seasons:
How do they manage without Jose Altuve?
The Astros will be without their star second baseman for at least two months after he fractured his thumb during the World Baseball Classic. Altuve started 2022 slow and before landing on the IL for a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain, but he reclaimed his spot as one of the sports best players when he returned, compiling a .310/.396/.554 slash line from May 2 through the end of the regular season which was his best since 2017 and he finished fifth in MVP voting, but now the Astros have to replace him for a third of the 2023 season.
When healthy, Aledmys Diaz was the Astros fifth infielder the last four seasons, but the team allowed him to leave in free agency, so Dusty Baker’s options at second for the moment are limited to Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley.
Dubon, 28, hit .208 with a .554 OPS in 83 games after the Astros acquired him in a trade from the San Francisco Giants, while Hensley, 27, swung the bat well in his Major League debut late last season, but the regular season sample size is limited to 34 plate appearances, though it was enough to earn him a couple of DH starts in the World Series. Neither player grabbed hold of the job this spring, with both batting below .210 in Grapefruit League play. The Astros could look outside the organization, but options will be limited and their 40-man roster is full.
With Altuve on the mend, the Astros lose one of baseball’s best hitters and will replace him with either a below average hitter in Dubón or a relative unknown in Hensley. Dusty Baker will likely opt for Dubón’s defense, which will severely shorten the Astros lineup. They can survive it for a couple of months, but it shrinks their margin for error.
Can the starting pitching hold up?
The Athletic asked 20 executives, analysts, and scouts to rank the top starting pitchers in baseball, and former Astro Justin Verlander was voted number one, but no current Astros starter ranked inside the top 23. Framber Valdez checked in at number 24, which is way too low, but it did shed some light on how the Astros current rotation is viewed by those outside the organization.
Anchored by Valdez, the rotation should still be very good in 2023, but with Valdez as the number two starter behind Verlander last season, the Astros starters threw 43 more innings than any staff in baseball, while finishing with the second best ERA. This allowed the baseball’s best bullpen to threw the fewest innings, keeping it fresh for a long postseason run where it allowed five earned runs in 54.1 innings.
Valdez threw at least six innings in 26-of-31 regular season starts last season, and the Astros will need that trend to continue, but they will also need, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy to do the same, only the three of them combined to hit the six-inning mark in just 40-of-81 starts. Javier was the best at preventing runs, but he was able to record 18 outs in only 11-of-25 starts.
The Astros will also be relying on highly-touted rookie Hunter Brown, who had an up-and-down spring and has had trouble throwing strikes in the past, along with Lance McCullers Jr, who will start the season on the IL. Depth behind those six isn’t great. The team is trying to convert Ronel Blanco into a starter, Brandon Bielak has had limited Major League success the last three seasons, but there is always the Forrest Whitley wild card. He appears to finally be healthy, and he threw the ball well during spring training.
Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy?
Two years ago, the Astros were worried about Alvarez’ legs holding up after he had both knees operated on in 2020, but now his hands are of concern. Alvarez dealt with soreness in both as he slumped towards the end of the 2022 season. The hope was that months of rest over an entire offseason would get him back to 100 percent, but Alvarez felt pain in his left hand at the start of spring training and did not appear in a Grapefruit League game until last week.
The Astros have been incredibly vague, even for Astros standards, about Alvarez’ hand issues, but it goes without saying, they need him in the lineup and they need him performing at a high level, especially with Altuve set to miss the season’s first two months. Alvarez slashed .310/.417/.670 from the start of the season through July 31, which included a short IL stint right before the All-Star Break, but he finished with a .639 OPS in August. He did finish the regular season on a high note, only to struggle in the postseason after hitting home runs in the first two games of the ALDS before his mammoth homer in game six of the World Series.
Is there a wild card looming in center field?
The Astros did not add a centerfielder from outside the organization over the winter, so they’ll roll with the Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers duo with Mauricio Dubón around as an option, at least when Jose Altuve reclaims second base, for now. The team has tried to mix and match for two seasons since George Springer left for Toronto, but is this the year someone emerges to take that job?
McCormick has been an above average hitter the last two seasons and really played well last postseason, but while he crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .910 OPS, righties have held him to a .688 with a 31 percent strikeout rate. He is also seen as a liability defensively because of a poor throwing arm, which is why Dubón was essentially Justin Verlander’s personal centerfielder during the 2022 regular season.
Meyers is the better athlete and possesses the better throwing arm when healthy, but he wasn’t healthy in what turned into a lost 2022 season as he struggled to recover from the shoulder injury he suffered during the 2021 ALDS against the White Sox. Meyers put up a .768 OPS in his first taste of big league action in 2021, but like McCormick, struggled against right-handed pitching.
Those two will get the first crack at locking down center field for the Astros in 2023, but there could be internal options if they falter. Pedro Leon will start the season in Sugar Land after missing almost all of spring training due to hernia surgery in February. The 24-year old has had limited success in two minor league seasons since the team signed him, but they gave him $4 million, so they aren’t going to give up on him, but there is a more wild, wild card out there.
Drew Gilbert, the Astros 2022 first round pick has dealt with multiple injuries in his brief Astros career. He dislocated his elbow crashing into a wall last August, and a hamstring injury kept him off the field during Grapefruit League play, but Astros general manager Dana Brown is very high on the former Tennessee star and told SportsRadio 610 earlier this month that he wanted to draft Gilbert when he was with the Braves.
“What can you say about a power hitting centerfielder who can actually fly?” Brown said Tuesday. “When you look at him you don't think he's got power, but he's got power. He's a smaller guy with pop.”
Gilbert will start the season with High-A Asheville, but he could move through the Astros system very, very quickly, and Brown won’t hesitate to throw him in the mix.