Fantasy football 2021: top sleepers and breakout players

Tua Tagovailoa
ECR: QB17 | ADP: QB22

If you weren't all that impressed by Tua Tagovailoa last season, you weren't alone. But 2021 provides a clean slate, with a revamped receiving core thanks to the additions of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle and no more Ryan Fitzpatrick to worry about. The job is firmly in the hands of Tagovailoa, now, and he's done a lot this preseason to assure fans that he's ready for the gig.

Experts seem to be higher on the Dolphins' second-year slinger than the general public, seeing as there's a five-spot difference between his ECR and ADP. If the ADP of QB22 holds true, you could potentially be grabbing a QB1 in a productive offense after the likes of players like Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins, none of whom have the same upside. He's a great second QB to snag late in drafts that could ultimately supersede your initial starter in the fantasy football pecking order.

Others
Carson Wentz (ECR: QB27 | ADP: QB28)
If he's healthy, Wentz has a truly high ceiling based on his history with Frank Reich. He's got a great offensive line to protect him and some nice weapons around him, so snagging him as a backup before some safer picks isn't a bad idea.

Jameis Winston (ECR: QB28 | ADP: QB30)
Winston seems to have secured the starting gig, though Sean Payton hasn't made that official yet, and we remind you that the free-firing Winston was the No. 3 quarterback in all of fantasy football in 2019. That's not going to happen this year because of the system he's in, but he also won't make as many mistakes and could reasonably find himself as a viable streaming option, if not more.

Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon combo
ECR: RB29/32 | ADP: RB27/34

"If I were to stay healthy like I was supposed to last year, the sky is the limit."

That's how Mostert feels entering 2021, who told CBS Sports Radio's "Tiki and Tierney" that his "confidence level has skyrocketed" ahead of the upcoming season (h/t Taylor Wirth of NBC Sports). And for good reason: since 2017, no running back in football with at least 200 carries has a higher yards per attempt figure than Mostert (5.64), which is a good chunk larger than runner-up Nick Chubb (5.23). Health is an "if." Production is not.

HOWEVER (!!!), you should also do your best to pick up rookie Trey Sermon if you draft Mostert. It might be difficult to do so if you're picking from, say, fifth to eighth. That's because there will be several picks between each of yours. But if you are at the front or back of the draft order and can get both Mostert and Sermon in back-to-back picks, your chances of having a top-12 running back on your roster every week increase substantially. As Eric Frosbutter of Pro Football Network notes, in 11 of 16 games last year, one 49ers running back finished in the top 12.

Think of it this way: a running back who you can confidently plug in as an RB1 every week is a rare breed. If Mostert can be that for half a season, and Sermon eventually takes those reins in the second half, you're essentially sacrificing back-to-back mid-round picks for a great RB1. Or maybe Mostert is an RB1 the whole year. Or maybe Mostert gets hurt, and it's Sermon's time to shine right away. It's a little bit of a gamble, but there are a lot of ways in which it works — at least in my mind.

Kenyan Drake
ECR: RB37 | ADP: RB39

The Raiders are going to use Josh Jacobs a lot, which automatically caps Drake's value a decent amount. With that said, offering Drake a two-year, $11 million deal means he's not just going to sit there idly. What's more is that his move to Las Vegas will likely allow him to get back to his role as a dual-threat back, one that allowed him to haul in at least 50 passes in both 2018 and 2019 before Chase Edmonds took a lot of those targets away in 2020.

Jacobs also struggled with efficiency in 2020, which is worth noting. He only averaged 3.9 yards per carry and was ranked No. 43 out of 47 running backs (min. 100 attempts) in Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, used to calculate a player's total value. He's the starter with 110 percent certainty and has put up great counting stats, but perhaps Drake will be more effective with his touches and earn himself a larger role as the season progresses. In half- or full-PPR leagues, Drake is as good an NFL backup as any, aside from obvious players like Kareem Hunt.

Others
Phillip Lindsay (ECR: RB45 | ADP: RB52)
Lindsay has always been a good pure running back, and though Denver no longer had a place for him, Houston's running back room of Lindsay, David Johnson and Mark Ingram seems to give him an opportunity to become the first in line for touches.

Michael Carter (ECR: RB33 | ADP: RB32)
Likely one of the last potential starting running backs off the board, Carter's abilities are more exciting than those of Tevin Coleman — who is also older and prone to injury — and he could become the Jets' RB1 sooner rather than later.

Henry Ruggs III
ECR: WR56 | ADP: WR49

It looks like the general fantasy football community is higher on Ruggs' upside than the experts are based on the ECR/ADP figures, and there's obviously good reason for that. He's got blazing speed — perhaps more than anyone else in the league — and put that on display a few times as a rookie.

He no longer has Nelson Agholor to compete with for targets, either, and John Brown's addition may only help matters. As FantasyPros' Kyle Yates notes, Brown's presence as a deep threat might allow the Raiders to use Ruggs underneath more to fully take advantage of his blinding speed and impressive YAC abilities. Once again, Las Vegas's defense should lead to more positive game scripts for Ruggs and company, meaning the opportunity is there for a second-year breakout.

Tyrell Williams
ECR: WR82 | ADP: WR97

Speaking of bad defenses... the Lions' unit is just as bad as the Raiders' group, if not worse. And former Raider Tyrell Williams will likely benefit from that, seeing as Jared Goff may be throwing the ball a whole lot in his debut season with Detroit. Someone's gotta catch passes, and while both D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson will get theirs, Williams could lead the WR unit — one that also features such exciting names as Breshad Perriman and Amon-Ra St. Brown — and attempt to replicate his 1,000-yard 2016 season.

More importantly, just look at those ECR/ADP figures. You won't have to sacrifice anything too valuable in order to take a stab at a team's potential leading WR.

Others
Michael Gallup (ECR: WR45 | ADP: WR47)
If the Cowboys' offense under Dak Prescott is as good as it was last year, there should be more than enough ball to go around to get Gallup included. After all, all three of Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb saw 100-plus targets in 2020, and Gallup was on pace for a 1,000-plus-yard season before Prescott went down.

Corey Davis (ECR: WR40 | ADP: WR46)
Davis had a very productive 2020 season, doing enough to make the Jets think that he can truly be a team's WR1. If Zach Wilson has as much talent as we think and leads a team with a high-scoring game script more often than not, Davis could see a ton of action.

Mike Williams (ECR: WR44 | ADP: WR45)
Considering just how good Justin Herbert was in 2020, Williams' stat line (48 catches, 756 yards, 5 touchdowns) was a little bit underwhelming. However, with Hunter Henry and his 93 targets now gone and what could be an even stronger year from Herbert in line, there's easy 1,000-yard potential for the talented fifth-year wideout.

Jonnu Smith
ECR: TE14 | ADP: TE16

Fellow new addition tight end Hunter Henry is already expected to miss "a couple of weeks" with a shoulder injury, one that could keep him sidelined when the season gets underway. Smith should, then, line up at tight end for the bulk of the snaps early on. And while there are a lot of hungry (if not overly talented) mouths to feed in New England, including new receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, Smith figures to be the top red zone target and will become an even stronger option if Henry's career-long injury issues persist in 2021.

Others
Irv Smith Jr. (ECR: TE13 | ADP: TE14)
It's Smith's time to shine without Kyle Rudolph in town, and we already saw flashes of the third-year tight end's upside in 2020. Just don't expect his own expectations for himself to be quite the reality.