(670 The Score) With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Bears have kept their playoff hopes alive.
The Bears earned a 33-27 victory over the Vikings in a game Sunday in Minneapolis that featured pivotal playoff stakes. To survive another week, the Bears (7-7) must beat the Jaguars (1-13) next Sunday afternoon.
On paper, the game doesn't look all that difficult. Jacksonville has lost 13 straight games and is in line to land the top overall pick in the NFL Draft -- and the right to select Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
The Jaguars could have the chance to nab Lawrence because of a surprising score from Sunday that the Bears noticed while traveling back from Minneapolis: Jets 23, Rams 20.
The previously-winless Jets (1-13) pulled the biggest stunner of the season in beating the Rams (9-5). Now, Nagy has all the evidence he needs to keep the Bears focused on beating the Jaguars -- and not looking ahead to the regular-season finale against the Packers (11-3) at Soldier Field on Jan. 3.
"If anybody watched that Rams-Jets game yesterday, you can see what it means to play in the NFL," Nagy said Monday morning. "(Opponents' record) does not matter.
"The last thing we're going to do is look past anybody."
With their victory Sunday, the Bears boosted their playoff chances from 8% to 31%, according to FiveThirtyEight's quarterback-adjusted forecasts. By comparison, the Vikings -- who also entered Sunday at 6-7 -- now have their playoff hopes on life support at 2%. The Bears didn't get any help with the Cardinals' 33-26 win against the Eagles on Sunday, which elevated Arizona's playoff chances to 70%. The Cardinals (8-6) currently occupy the seventh and final playoff seed in the NFC.
That means the Bears still need help to reach the playoffs. A victory over the Jaguars in and of itself elevates the Bears' playoff odds to 40%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Should the Cardinals beat the now-eliminated 49ers (5-9) later next Sunday, the Bears' hopes would then be reduced to 23%. On the other hand, the 49ers upsetting the Cardinals combined with a win by the Bears would lift Chicago's playoff chances to 73% heading into Week 17.
Without the Bears and Cardinals playing each other this season, the tiebreaker for the final wild-card seed would be determined by conference record. The Bears are 6-5 in the NFC with only the Packers left on the schedule from their conference. The Cardinals are 6-4 with games left against the 49ers and Rams in conference.
If both the Bears won their final two games and the Cardinals split, they'd have identical 7-5 records in conference play. The next tiebreaker after that is winning percentage against common opponents, which the Bears have already clinched. Chicago is currently 3-2 against the opponents it has in common with Arizona, which is 1-3.
So if the Bears win their final two games and the Cardinals split, Chicago would earn the final playoff spot. There's also the possibility of the Bears and Cardinals both getting into the postseason if the Buccaneers (9-5) lost their final games to the Lions (5-9) and Falcons (4-10), a scenario that's highly unlikely.
The FiveThirtyEight metrics don't measure the possibility of the Packers playing rookie quarterback Jordan Love over star Aaron Rodgers and resting other key players in a regular-season finale that may not be significant for Green Bay, which is one win away from clinching the top seed in the NFC.
There's still much to be decided in the final two weeks of play. For the Bears, their focus must be on winning the final two games to have a shot at reaching the playoffs.
That starts by not looking past the hapless Jaguars.
Injury report
Bears running back Cordarrelle Patterson is considered day-to-day, Nagy said. He suffered a knee injury in the second quarter Sunday.
Chris Emma covers the Bears, Chicago’s sports scene and more for 670TheScore.com. Follow him on Twitter @CEmma670.