After a fun Super Wild Card Weekend, we are down to eight teams, most of which have star quarterbacks. With the Divisional Round kicking off on Saturday, we re-ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the Lombardi Trophy.
To try to identify some teams that present value, I dug into the model’s projections to compare its Super Bowl Win % against DraftKings Sportsbook’s implied odds of winning it all.
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Teams That Stand Out
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (BetQL Projection: 12.1%)
Tampa Bay has a tough matchup this weekend in New Orleans, but our model sees them trending up. While Kansas City is still the overall projected model favorite at 31.5 percent, the Bucs have actually overtaken the New Orleans Saints to win it all per the model’s projections. The model also has the Bucs winning the NFC at a 27.4 percent clip, putting them right behind the Packers and surpassing the Saints there as well.
DraftKings currently lists Tampa Bay with a 9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. BetQL's model has the Bucs winning 12.1 percent of the time, which means there is value on Tampa Bay at +900.
If you see the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady winning outright this weekend, then taking the Bucs to win the Super Bowl before kick-off is the bet for you. Fun fact: Brady has been a playoff underdog now eight times in his career, and the future Hall of Famer is 4-3 both straight up and against the spread in the previous seven games.
Los Angeles Rams (BetQL Projection: 7.5%)
The Rams are coming off an upset win at Seattle, but can they keep the momentum going this weekend in Green Bay?
This seems like a tough matchup, as they are 7-point underdogs, but Los Angeles does have a couple of things going for them. Most notably, Aaron Donald, who Rams head coach Sean McVay referred to as the “Terminator." Donald was dinged up last week but is expected to play vs. the Packers.
Los Angeles also comes into the game ranked No. 4 in Team Defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. If the defense can slow down Rodgers, lookout.
DraftKings has the Rams with a 4.3 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, while our model has Los Angeles winning 7.5 percent of the time. Betting on them to win it all at +2000 provides some upside.
Lottery Ticket
Cleveland Browns (BetQL Projection: 4.1%)
The Browns shocked the world by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. Can they do it again? They have a tall task against the Kansas City Chiefs. The defending Super Bowl champions are 10-point favorites currently against the Browns.
Kansas City hasn’t played since January 3rd and their starters even longer, as they rested in Week 17. Maybe the Chiefs come out a little rusty? In a year full of craziness, Cleveland winning a Super Bowl would top it all, at least in my book.
DraftKings lists the Browns with a 2.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Our model has Cleveland winning 4.1 percent of the time, which makes them undervalued at 30-1 heading into the weekend.
Full BetQL Model results:
Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +205
Implied Probability: 29.4%
BetQL Projection: 31.5%
Green Bay Packers
Odds: +375
Implied Probability: 18.9%
BetQL Projection: 15.9%
New Orleans Saints
Odds: +600
Implied Probability: 12.8%
BetQL Projection: 9.5%
Buffalo Bills
Odds: +600
Implied Probability: 12.8%
BetQL Projection: 10.4%
Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +800
Implied Probability: 10%
BetQL Projection: 9.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: +900
Implied Probability: 9%
BetQL Projection: 12.1%
Los Angeles Rams
Odds: +2000
Implied Probability: 4.3%
BetQL Projection: 7.5%
Cleveland Browns
Odds: +3000
Implied Probability: 2.9%
BetQL Projection: 4.1%