Entering Friday, Julius Randle was 24th in the league in scoring at 23.1 points per game, on a respectable 58 percent true shooting percentage (he is shooting .485/.344/.778). His 12 rebounds per game was the fourth-best average in the league, and his 7.4 assists were eighth in the league. If the All-Star game was being played next week, he would be in it.
Is Randle’s success going to continue on this trajectory for the rest of the season, or will he slowly play back to his past performance? No one can know for sure, though with Randle’s new unselfish team-first approach and the fact he is in the best shape of his life, continuation is possible. That’s not the question we are going to try to answer today.
Instead, let’s do a little thought experiment. The Knicks’ number one goal has been to set themselves up in the best possible way to acquire multiple star players. But what if one of those star players is already on the team, and his name is Julius Randle?
In some ways, his emergence has to change the organization’s approach and thought-process this season. The Knicks cannot in good conscience trade away the veterans on this team if they are going to make the playoffs or compete in the play-in tournament. It doesn’t mean no players should be made available in the right deal, especially if the team has a lot of depth at a position, but the fire sale for future draft picks that many Knicks fans envisioned last fall is not going to happen, nor should it.
Instead, would the Knicks be buyers at the trade deadline, and try to acquire pieces to put around Julius Randle and their young core to improve their playoff positioning or even try to win a round? The only answer here would be “it depends.”
The team is in excellent position to make a trade like that, with future draft picks, a number of players on rookie and inexpensive contracts, and $18 million of cap space to absorb more salary than they take in. If the right players become available, they should be willing to make a move.
The Knicks need to decide how high their ceiling is with Julius Randle as the engine of their offense. As well as Randle has played this year, he is a player that needs the ball in his hands to be effective. But is he good enough player to get a team to 50-plus wins with 27 percent usage rate? It is hard to image him being the number one option on a championship contending team.
But if he is the second best player on the team next to a more ball-dominant guard, can he maintain his effectiveness while improving his efficiency and cutting down on his turnovers? If the Knicks want to move forward with Randle, that’s the path they need to take. Playing at this level, he is on a reasonable contract and the Knicks control his rights through next season.
So what kind of player should the Knicks target to complement Randle to make him the best version of himself and help the Knicks contend? They should prioritize an upgrade at guard or wing, under the age of 30, that can operate as a primary ball-handler. He should not be on a contract that would eliminate all future flexibility, unless the player is a true All-Star caliber or All-NBA caliber player. The question the Knicks would have to ask themselves is whether their acquisition, Randle, and the rest of the players on the roster would put the team into true Eastern Conference contention. It doesn’t seem that plausible, which makes a trade for a max player unlikely, unless it is for someone that is an All-NBA player like Bradley Beal.
Ideally, the Knicks’ target would be a player with a similar contract to Randle, which would still leave them some flexibility this offseason to go shopping in free agency to add another established player to the young core. The team can maintain future flexibility to add more good players later, while making improvements to the roster for a 2021 playoff run.
This is not the Knicks’ only possible approach to Randle’s emergence. They could conclude that due to Randle’s limitations as a player off the ball, his lack of consistent long-range shooting, turnover issues, and defensive liabilities, they prefer to flip him in a trade when his value is highest. It just wouldn’t be the trade Knicks fans imagined before the season.
The trade wouldn’t only return a future first-round pick, unproven players, or a future asset. The Knicks would have to get closer to equal value in terms of players that can help them win on the floor this season, or a less-accomplished player and future first-round draft picks. It wouldn’t be a Jrue Holiday type return, but they would have to receive more than just a salary dump and a late first-round pick.
I understand why Knicks fans are concerned the team’s recent winning will hurt their draft position, but current players on the roster playing at a high level with Randle in the spotlight opens up other possibilities to move the team forward in the future. It is a different path that will require more creativity, but it is still a viable path that presents the team with different options other than “I hope we draft well.”
There’s a chance Randle regresses and the team begins to lose more games, making these scenarios moot. But there’s a chance that doesn’t happen either, and the Knicks are sitting in the sixth or seventh seed in March looking to improve, with a roster full of commodities other teams value. For once, the team has several “what if” scenarios to consider and multiple paths to a brighter future.
How long has it been since Knicks fans could say that?
Follow John Schmeelk on Twitter: @Schmeelk
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