The college basketball futures market is a unique one because unlike every other sport, 68 teams make the postseason. In a long season, team’s go through ups and downs and there are times to buy low.
The NCAA Tournament presents valuable opportunities for bettors to wager on a wide array of teams at inflated numbers that will dip as March Madness draws closer. Let’s hit on a few teams that are being undervalued in the marketplace heading into 2021.
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All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Name Brand School: Michigan 40/1
The Big Ten is going to be a warzone all season with several high end contenders in the mix for the conference crown, but Michigan has been flying under the radar. After stumbling to the finish line through conference play last season, the Wolverines have gotten off to a strong start in Juwan Howard’s second season as head coach.
Michigan currently stands at No. 15 in Ken Pomery’s rankings, paced by a top 10 offense and a defense that ranks 34th in the nation. While the defense is tick below what is typical for a national title contender by historical comparisons, let’s look at the composition of the team.
Michigan did lose two significant contributors, but also did a good job of replacing them. The team lost point guard Zavier Simpson and big man Jon Teske, but brought in Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown and freshman Hunter Dickinson who stands at 7’1. Dickinson has been an impact player already, averaging 15.3 points and 8.4 rebounds through seven games.
Another year of growth on the wing for Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers will do some good for a Michigan team that faltered late in the season. The Wolverines are also counting on Eli Brooks to take a step forward as the lead guard in place of Simpson.
I think Michigan is an overlooked team in the crowded Big Ten. Despite losing form late in the season, Michigan was top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. This team has similar talent and can learn from Howard’s rookie coaching season. This is a great buy low spot.
Cinderella Team: Saint Louis 66/1
If Saint Louis makes the tournament, which I see as very likely, this team won’t be a Cinderella, they are going to be a known threat to make a deep run in March.
Led by two standout perimeter threats in Jordan Goodwin and Javonte Perkins, this is a veteran laden Bilkins squad that locks up defensively, but has improved markedly on the offensive end of the floor.
After finishing 110 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency last season, the Bilks are coming in at No. 34 this season. The Atlantic 10 is strong this year, so there will be opportunities for the club to bolster its resume and get big game experience in conference play.
Saint Louis doesn’t have a ton of size, but makes up for it by crashing the glass, led by Hasahn French. French stands 6’7 and leads a Saint Louis squad that is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking inside the top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage at nearly 40%.
The Billikens were 100/1 to win it all before the season but still offer bettors value at 66/1. Jump on them now.
Team Hiding in Plain Sight: Tennessee 20/1
It’s always an adventure having money on Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes in March, but this is without a doubt his most talented team since arriving in Knoxville, and that includes the 2019 Elite Eight squad.
The team brings back frontcourt studs John Fulkerson and Yves Pons for their senior seasons, while adding two five star freshmen in Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson. Toss in two sophomore guards in Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James, who do a bit of everything, and the Vols have a deep and dangerous roster.
Barnes and his team did have a late start to the season as they were dealing with COVID-19 protocols, so they have been a bit out of sight and out of mind to the betting public. When SEC play picks up, the Vols are the favorites to win the regular season crown, so 20/1 won’t be on the board much longer.
Tennessee is a buy team for me all year and I expect them to be in the mix for a top 3 seed come March.