Yesterday, we took a look at the Knicks’ surprisingly stifling defense this year. Today we’ll look at their offense which has been…the one being stifled on most nights so far this season. Some basic numbers:
44.5% FG%: 23rd in the NBA
27.4 3PT Att and 9.4 3PTM/game: Both last in the NBA
34.3% 3PT%: 23rd in the NBA
21.1 FTA’s per game: 20th in the NBA
100.6 points per game: Last in the NBA
104.6 Offensive Rating: Last in the NBA
50.4 Effective FG%: 26th in the NBA
They are ugly and paint a picture of one of the worst offenses in the league. But their problem is the opposite of the issue that we examined with their defense.
The Knicks’ shot profile is actually fairly good. The Knicks rank fifth in the NBA with 39 percent of their shots coming at the rim, and only one team averages more drives per game. They also rank ninth in the NBA with 9.8 percent of their shots coming from the corners behind the three-point line. Those are two of the most efficient shots in basketball, and on top of it, the Knicks are also tenth in the league in offensive rebound percentage, which gives them extra possessions.
It doesn’t mean their profile is perfect. They shoot too many mid-range jump shots (11th most in the league), and they don’t get to the free throw line enough (21st in free throw rate). They should also be taking more threes outside of the corners (no team takes fewer), which is something Tom Thibodeau has stressed on his postgame virtual media calls. They also turn the ball over too much, with only six teams having a higher turnover rate.
Their offensive scheme, and approach, however, is not broken. There is more good than bad in there. Thibodeau has verbally expressed where he thinks the most efficient shots on the floor are and he is right in his analysis. The Knicks just don’t have the players to be efficient with those shot attempts. Their talent simply isn’t good enough.
The simple tell is Cleaning The Glass’s comparison of their actual Effective Field Goal Percentage versus their projected Effective Field Goal Percentage, based off where the shots are coming from. This chart shows the teams at the bottom of the league in EFG% in the left column, with their projected EFG% on the right.
The other worry is that it is their best players that have their worst shot profiles. Julius Randle is in the 84th percentile in the number of mid-range shots he takes, mostly because defenses are paying so much attention to him that he cannot consistently get to the rim in the half-court. RJ Barrett is in the 67th percentile, Elfrid Payton the 76th percentile, and Reggie Bullock in the 71st percentile. That’s four-fifths of the Knicks starting lineup that is taking far too many shots from mid-range.
The good news is that Payton, Barrett, and Robinson, all starters, all get shots at the rim in the top nine percent of all players in the league. All three are also in the bottom 10 percent of three-point attempts. The Knicks’ best point guard and engine of their offense off the bench is Immanuel Quickley, who is in the 96th percentile in the number of shots he has taken from mid-range, mostly due to his floater.
Here’s worse news: none of those players are particularly efficient in the shots that they take. According to Cleaning the Glass, Barrett is only in the 26th percentile in finishing at the rim and in the 25th percentile finishing from midrange. Payton is hovering around the middle of the league at the rim and on mid-range shots.
Randle and Bullock have managed decent finishing rates in the mid-range (62nd and 63rd percentile), though Randle’s numbers are unlikely to remain so high given his unsustainable 57 percent shooting from long mid-range. Once that normalizes his EFG% will begin to drop from 52.8 percent, unless the Knicks can find ways to get him more space to get to the rim. Bullock has struggled from behind the three point line, shooting only 31 percent.
The only thing the Knicks can do to help these issues on offense is to prioritize shooting in all their lineup decisions. Julius Randle needs a spread-out floor to maximize his ability to finish in the paint and create for his teammates. He needs to be surrounded by shooters. Kevin Knox (43% 3PT), Austin Rivers (38% 3PT) and Immanuel Quickley (34%) have been the team’s best three point shooters. They need to be on the floor with Julius Randle as much as possible.
Tom Thibodeau will have more options once Alec Burks (10-15 3PT) and Frank Ntilikina (5-7 3PT) return from their injuries. Even though both those players will regress to more typical shooting percentages, they still provide better three-point options than players like Elfrid Payton (31% 3PT). Burks is the Knicks’ best wing. Making some changes with Thibodeau’s lineups is the only chance this Knicks offense has of becoming more efficient and consistently putting up more points.
At some point, Tom Thibodeau is going to have to make a choice. As much as he likes some of the things that players like Payton, Bullock, and even RJ Barrett do other than shooting, the fact they can’t stretch defenses with their perimeter shot may force a lineup change. Inserting Quickley for Payton and Burks or Knox for Bullock are easy answers, but then what?
Might it be better to stagger Barrett’s and Randle’s minutes, so both players can have more shooting around them? Is it be possible to play Elfrid Payton at all with any of those lineups due to his lack of shooting? Defenders can help off of him with no fear of paying any price for it. It is hard to make the case that the rest of his game offers enough to give him considerable minutes, as he hurts the players around him because of his inability to shoot.
There are no easy answers for the Knicks’ struggling offense, but there are changes that can be made to help. Thibodeau has to pull the trigger on them sooner rather than later if he wants to pull the Knicks’ offense out of the bottom quarter of the league. If he can’t do that, the hopes of making a playoff run are probably more of a pipe dream than a realistic vision.
Check out the latest episode of The Bank Shot with The Athletic’s Seth Partnow, talking about the Knicks' defense and other topics. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
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