The Atlanta Falcons are presented with a monumental task this offseason with their eventual decision at the quarterback position. With a brand new coaching staff in Flowery Branch, it's hard to predict the direction that the franchise will go but the inevitable move will go a long way in dictating the success of the Raheem Morris era.
Do they sign a free agent? Do they draft one? Do they make a trade to acquire Justin Fields from the Chicago Bears? There are multiple options for the Falcons, but also multiple teams that are also in the market to make things just a bit more complicated. So what gives?
The quarterback position is, historically, a bit of a crapshoot.
For those screaming that the Falcons should draft their next franchise man -- of the 41 quarterbacks drafted since the changes in the rookie wage scale took place in 2011, the cumulative record for these players is a mere 1048-1058-7. Of them, only Patrick Mahomes has led his team to a Super Bowl. Furthermore, only 11 were given a second deal with the team that drafted them.
Unfortunately, buying or trading for your future quarterback is just as risky. Teams are more likely to acquire the next Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson than they are to find their Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady.
With that being known, should the Falcons push to go for a player like Fields? He has experienced the growing pains and won't require the massive investment of the formerly listed quarterbacks, at least not yet. If the team does go for an experienced option, he might be their best bet.
"My chance of success if I say that Justin Fields will be a bust, in terms of he's not a long-term plan, has as much of a chance at being right as the guy saying that Justin Fields will be our quarterback for eight years and will go to multiple playoffs," Steak said about the uncertainty at predicting the quarterback position. "That's what's amazing -- how do we know?"
Fields has flashed moments of brilliance on the football field with some incredible athleticism, but has also made his fair share of mistakes -- so how do the Falcons get this quarterback decision right?
"First things first," Drew Butler answered. "You have to judge quarterbacks on situational football. How do you play on the road? How do you play on third down?"
To be fair, Fields has played on some pretty bad Chicago football teams, but the body of work three seasons in just is what it is. The 24-year-old has three game-winning drives under his belt, which is a whopping 30 percent of the Bears' wins during his career.
On the road, he is 4-16 as a starter with a 58.7 completion percentage, 3190 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions compared to splits of 62.1, 3,484, 22, and 15 at home. On third downs, Fields' completion percentage drops to 58 percent with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions (more than half of his career totals) -- numbers that have remained pretty consistent over his three years as a starter.
"The next thing," Butler continued. "Do you turn the ball over?"
Turnovers are the single fastest way to spell doom for an NFL offense -- just ask the 2023 Falcons about that. Fields has been a middle-of-the-road type of quarterback in terms of his total interceptions (30), but his interception percentage is the NFL's worst since 2021 (3.1).
He has accounted for 41 total turnovers since entering the league, which is tied for the seventh most in that span but in fewer games than anyone else on that list.
"The next thing [is] playoff experience," he said. "[Have you] been to the playoffs? [Have] you won a division? Have you won a Super Bowl?"
Short answer, no.
"And then the last thing, and maybe the most important, what are the leadership skills of these quarterbacks?" he finished. "[The Falcons are] going to talk to coaches, they're going to talk to personnel people, and they're going to get the whole picture and make the most informed decision possible."
The numbers don't lean in the young quarterback's favor three years into his career, but that's just what he is -- young. Players grow with the teammates around them and Fields has not had the benefit of developing a franchise that supports its players. Perhaps, the numbers should be scrapped and he be given a fresh chance in a new environment.
Regardless, the ultimate decision that the Falcons make will inevitably be the most important move they make this offseason. Maybe they go for Justin Fields and the change of scenery is exactly what he needed -- or maybe, they're right back in this same situation this time next year.