In today’s NFL, drafting Bijan Robinson at 8 is a bad long-term investment for the Atlanta Falcons. Tyler Allgeier, a fifth-round pick, just rushed for 1,035 yards in 16 games in his rookie season, which by the way is a Falcons franchise record.
Allgeier will make just under $2 million this season, and if the Falcons draft Robinson with the eighth overall pick tomorrow night they will be paying him around $4 or $5 million a year for the next four years, and that isn’t far off from what Allgeier will make off his entire rookie contract.
Why pay top dollar for a rookie rusher, and use the eighth overall pick on a running back when the Falcons just saw a fifth-round back, in his rookie season, is more than capable of getting the job done? Falcons beat writer for The Athletic, Josh Kendall, joined The Morning Shift earlier today, and expressed the same concerns.
“It would be worrisome in the long run, because you’re gonna be looking at paying him about you know $22, $23 million over the course of a four-year contract at the number 8 pick," Kendall said. "So i’m looking at Tyler Allgeier, he’s going to make about $4 million on his fifth-round contract, and he just set the franchises rookie rushing record.
“This Arthur Smith rushing offense, Atlanta Falcons rushing offense is really good, and I think that you know they can plug a guy in outside of the top 10.”
Kendall does believe that the Falcons need another running back, but isn’t sure committing the amount of money the Falcons would commit if they drafted a running back in the top 10 would be the smartest financial decision.
“I don’t know if you want to devote that kind of money over four years to the running back, that’s a $17 million difference between what you’re paying Tyler and what you’d pay a top-10 pick. How many free agents can you go out and grab to fill a couple of holes in those two or three years with that type of money, for me that’s how you gotta think about it,” Kendall said.
Robinson could be a generational talent that brings a lot of versatility to the Falcons offense with his potential to line up in the slot sometimes. But is his skill worth a top-10 pick price tag? Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith now have a little over 24 hours to make that decision.
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