CHICAGO (WBBM NEWSRADIO) -- The Chicago Bears take on the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 3:25 p.m. at Soldier Field, and the game can be heard on WBBM Newsradio 780. Here are Jeff Joniak's keys to the game.
Offense
Progress is slow and finding answers to all the questions, but hitting the reset button for the next test revs up the competitive burn of Matt Nagy. Finding “go-to” calls on his play sheet against a talented Saints defense must include keeping Drew Brees off the field as much as possible.
In a critical intra-conference matchup like this one, playing complementary football is critical, and the Bears need to find that vibe. It means possessing the ball, eating the clock, moving the chains, and finding a way to get to the red area as much as possible.
For as impressive the Saints are at stopping the run(4th in the league), they are vulnerable in the passing game if their pass rush doesn’t get home. They have been victimized by multiple communication breakdowns on the back end, and teams are converting 51% of their third downs and 86.4% touchdown efficiency in the red zone which is worst in the league.
Now, the Bears are weak in those area’s ranking 30th on third down and 29th in the red zone, so execution must improve in both of these important situations.
Fast starts have been elusive for the Bears, with only 23 first quarter points(t25th) and coming out of the locker room in the second half with a league low 7 third quarter points. This to me is a critical key this week. A slow start could creep into the psyche of the entire team, where frustration is the enemy.
New Orleans has given up 41 points combined at the start of each half on seven scoring drives, so their defense has not necessarily started fast this season either. It’s an opportunity for the Bears.
Another opportunity for the Bears is taking advantage of a heavily penalized defense. Just like the Bears they are giving up first downs by penalty and teams have taken advantage scoring on 17 drives that include a penalty for first down, tied for the most in the league with the Bears.
Defense
There is no greater key this week than sure tackling. It was inconsistent Monday night, and led to a bunch of chunk plays against the defense. In fact, the Bears are now 31st in the league allowing 33 runs of 10-yards or more. It’s those chunk plays the Saints thrive on as an offense.
Bringing down Saints running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray on first contact in both the run and pass game is critical. They have combined for 217 yards after contact in the run game, and 586 yards in the passing game. That is a big number.
Overall the Saints are earning 5.3 yards after the catch per route, which fits the Drew Brees passing game at the moment. He gets the ball out quickly, and skims his profits. It has led to 14 10+play drives and 7 touchdowns(6th best) and overall 67 points on those drives which is top ten. They are only getting 10.6 yards-per-catch, which ranks 25th, but they living in third and short which has produced an overall conversion rate of 55.1% which is best in the league.
Blitzing Brees is not fruitful. He is the league’s 2nd rated passer at age 41 against the blitz with 30 completions and four touchdowns. It’s risky business behind a very good offensive line.
Turning over the Saints is difficult, because Brees is second only to Aaron Rodgers of the Packers in TD/INT ratio since 2018. His career interception rate hovers around 2.4% and he’s thrown only 20 picks in his last 1615 pass attempts.
Lastly, playing a cleaner game in the penalty department is significantly important against a Hall of Fame quarterback like Drew Brees. Like Akiem Hicks says you have to still play hard, but adjust to the way the game is being officiated.
Special Teams
Just looking at the numbers, the Saints are not going to give up a lot in the return game, but they have a dangerous and dynamic returner that is a threat to do damage every time he touches the ball.
Punter Thomas Morstead has forced 13 fair catches on his 20 punts, and did not punt at all in their last game against Carolina. The coverage unit has faced only three returns for 13 yards. He excels at challenging the patience of a returner pinning them deep and to the sideline.
The kick coverage has been outstanding ranking third in the league at 16.8, with only five returns of 20+ yards.
2nd year return specialist Deonte Harris is a pistol. He’s averaging 13.8 on his punt returns and 25.4 on kickoffs. He is fast and physical for weighing just 170 pounds. He set the NCAA record with 14 return touchdowns at Division II Assumption College in Worcester, Massachusetts, and had one touchdown on a punt return last season against Seattle.
Cordarrelle Patterson has the green light nearly 100% of the time, but with challenging winds expected at Soldier Field it will be interesting to watch the chess match by both teams when it comes to the kicking and return game.
Securing punts in Autumn winds is a pre-requisite and despite the performance by Ted Ginn Jr. Monday night dealing with Rams punter Johnny Hekker, it stands to reason there is trust in Ginn’s hands to secure punts, but helping out the field position battle by making some fair catches would be helpful compared to the bounce and roll.
Teams generally want to steal possessions on the Saints to keep Brees and that offense off the field, so if the Bears can steal one or two somehow because of special teams it is a bonus and ties back into complementary football.
Intangibles
This is a “get back on the horse” kind of game for the Bears. If they are the playoff contending team they have the potential to be, then playing significantly better in all three phases against another playoff caliber team. It’s a test of resolve and commitment. Slipping into the black hole of frustration over an offense yet to solve its issues must be avoided.