Trevor Lawrence is going to the Jaguars at No. 1. Zach Wilson is going to the Jets at No. 2. And the draft night drama that we all love will start when the 49ers are on the clock at pick No. 3.
But maybe that shouldn't be so set in stone. Maybe it should — it's up for discussion. It's not hard to find the arguments that say that this should be, and will be, the way in which the top two picks play out, especially when considering the No. 2 pick. Wilson's former coach says that he's "primed" for New York. Wilson, himself, said that being drafted by the Jets would be a "dream come true." Audacy Sports' expert mock draft, as well as others from ESPN's Mel Kiper, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, and the large majority of analysts, have the Jets going with the BYU product at No. 2.
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So, perhaps it is more or less set in stone. The better question to ask may be, then, whether or not that seemingly inevitable outcome is the correct path for the Jets, and that's where disagreements begin. Fox's Joel Klatt is one of the few that disagree with his ranking as the second best quarterback in the class — some, like Chris Simms, even have Wilson over Trevor Lawrence as the best QB in the class — instead saying that Justin Fields is the more impressive prospect. And one NFL quarterbacks coach that spoke with college football writer Bruce Feldman put some NFL labels on how Wilson could turn out, with one potential outcome making him seem like a huge gamble at No. 2 for the Jets.
"I could see Zach being a Pro Bowl QB quickly like (Justin) Herbert or I could see him being like Drew Lock," the coach said. "If I had to bet money, I’d bet it doesn’t work out for him with the Jets. Zach playing right away in that market with his play style — woof — that’d make me really nervous. And unlike Trey (Lance) and Justin (Fields), at least they’re 6-4, 230 and can run. So if he starts sh---ing the bed, we can get out of the game running the ball like Josh Allen did as a rookie in Buffalo."
However, another label from the same coach makes him seem all the more intriguing, and it's not one that we haven't heard before. Still, it does associate Wilson with some sort of risk.
"The good with Zach Wilson is really good, but the bad can be really, really bad. And when he goes to a bad team like the Jets and he’s trying to win games, those are big concerns," the coach said. "To me he’s kinda like Patrick Mahomes coming out of college. People think now about Mahomes as the Super Bowl-winning quarterback and how great he is now, but coming out of Texas Tech, he was not this surefire guy.
"...With Wilson, you see a lot of, ‘Why would you even try that?’ When he gets to the NFL he’s got to retool his game, and you’re gonna have to let him learn what he can throw and can’t throw, but unlike Mahomes, Zach won’t have Andy Reid to coach him and a year behind Alex Smith to learn from."
He won't have Andy Reid, but he will have a new and improved coaching staff if the Jets do opt to select him with the No. 2 pick. And he won't have Alex Smith, nor will he have Sam Darnold, nor will he have any veteran quarterback — at least not as the roster is current constructed — that he can learn from. He's going to get in there, with the weight of the Gang Green fan base on his shoulders, and he's going to carry the load from day one in all likelihood.
Another NFL quarterbacks coach that spoke with Feldman had another reason to be wary of Wilson.
"I definitely have concerns about the level of competition. This guy goes from just being a guy in 2019, and now all of a sudden he’s being talked about as a top-5 pick?" the coach said. "It happens, but he’s not playing against an SEC defensive front or a Pac-12 or Big 12 front. A lot of his throws are space throws. You don’t see him in a tight pocket a lot of times, and our league is a tight-pocket league. He’s not the biggest guy, but he has an arm — he can really rip it.
"I love the talent but there’s a lot of risk there to me."
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