It’s a question that few, if any, know the answer to.
The entertainment industry is part of the fourth phase of New York’s reopening plan, which would include professional sports. Western New York, which is the home to New York’s only NFL franchise, can begin phase four as early as June 30.
Even though New York appears to be beyond the worst of the pandemic, other states that have NFL teams are running into issues with increased cases of COVID-19. States like Arizona and Florida continue to see a spike in coronavirus cases.
Having none or a limited number of fans in stadiums will present billions of losses in revenues. Lindsey cited projections that estimate up to $5.5 billion in losses for the league due to the loss in ticket sales, concessions, ad revenue, parking, and more.
He said it could take multiple years for the league to recover from the financial impact of the pandemic.
New York could, in theory, allow more fans in stadiums than other states. However, Lindsey said there are many variables to consider and estimated that only 25 percent of fans are likely going to be allowed to return across the league this season.
“I think nobody really knows right now, including the NFL.” he said. “They’re developing a lot of contingency plans but I don’t think anybody really knows. If there’s a full season or not, how many games get canceled, all of that is up in the air.”
It’s not just the business side that will be taken into consideration by all parties. NFL teams, politicians, and public health officials will have to take into consideration potential legal ramifications. Nellie Drew, Director of UB Center for Advancement of Sport, does not believe there will be a “one size fits all” approach to the league.
“The NFL would have to revisit how it handles its shared revenues, for sure,” Drew said. “That remains to be seen.”
She said teams will have to consider requiring fans follow the screening requirements like a temperature check and even be required to sign a waiver in order to enter a stadium. Still, she worries that even if there is screening, there could be an outbreak similar to what happened in Italy, where the Atalanta-Valencia Champions League game was linked to the deadly outbreak of coronavirus in Italy.
“I think the best guidance that the league is going to have it to take the most cautious approach,” Drew said. “That’s the one that is least likely to result in liability. But there’s a calculation that has to be made there. I’m speaking as prospective legal counsel, not the business person that has to make that choice.”
Realistically, Drew expects that if fans will be allowed to attend games, they will still show up despite the dangers.
What about the players? Will they show up?
“I don’t know,” Drew said.
Cuomo announced on Tuesday that the US Open in New York City will be held without fans. The final day of the US Open, September 13, is the same day as the Buffalo Bills open their regular season against the New York Jets.