Buffalo, NY (WBEN) Siena College's annual poll of business leaders finds less confidence in the economy, but not so much a fear of a recession in 2020.
The poll finds CEO confidence declined this year as only 17 percent, down from 27 percent a year ago, say that current business conditions in New York are better while 36 percent, up from 26 percent a year ago, say that conditions have worsened. Still, 53 percent of CEO’s of private for-profit companies say it is not likely that the U.S. economy will be in recession between now and the end of 2020.
WNY poll numbers are HERE.
Levy says CEOs have more confidence in the federal government that state government. “About four of every ten CEO’s continue to give the federal government pro-business grades, over one-third have confidence in Washington’s ability to improve conditions and 47 percent say that the federal tax reform has had a positive impact. Still adding to their poor assessment of state government and their negative reaction to recent legislation including the Paid Family Leave Act and minimum wage increases, a majority say the general business climate in their immediate area is staying the same while a third say it is worsening, and only 28 percent rate local governmental support for business as either good or excellent,” Levy said.
Another matter is workplace sustainability. "When asked to rate the job applicants they see on seven attributes, CEO’s assessments of potential employees are down in every category from what they thought in 2013 and in every case – technical skills, verbal skills, writing skills, initiative, work ethic, being realistic about compensation and professionalism – no more than 32 percent give applicants a grade of excellent or good,” Levy said. “Despite concerns among CEO’s about workforce readiness, many are looking for candidates to hire, especially those that are ready to contribute on day one. Across Upstate, 30 percent of CEO’s plan to increase their workforce in 2020 while only 12 percent intend to cut back,” Levy said.
41 percent of CEO’s, down from 50 percent last year, expect revenue growth in the coming year, while 34 percent, down only slightly from 37 percent last year, expect growth in profits. And 51 percent, down from 57 percent, of Upstate CEO’s plan to invest in fixed assets in 2020.
But Gallagher does not believe a recession will happen in 2020. "If you look at the natural economic cycle, most people are saying we will have some sort of recession. How long or how deep remains to be seen. These predictions were made a year ago," notes Gallagher.
Workplace suitability is an issue WNY is also dealing with. "There's a skill gap but it's exacerbated because we're at full employment. So the people who don't have jobs are likely less skilled than the ones who do. We've got a particular challenge in this region because in the next 7 to 10 years, 25 percent of our workforce will be eligible for retirement, so the need to upskill our workforce is great to move people up within their companies to take on the roles and transition the workforce to the future," adds Gallagher.