(BetMGM/Audacy Sports/WGR 550) - Through their first five seasons as NFL starting quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers had one Super Bowl win to Josh Allen’s zero.
Rodgers had one NFL MVP to Allen’s zero, three All-Pro selections to one, three Pro Bowl selections to one, and two league passer rating titles to zero.
But Allen had better numbers in NFL betting… by far.
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Both quarterbacks finished below .500 against the moneyline in their first season as a starting quarterback — Rodgers was 6-10 in 2008 and Allen 5-6 in 2018. But, while Rodgers delivered poor returns for weekly moneyline bettors, Allen had one of the most profitable moneyline seasons for a quarterback in the last two decades.
The Buffalo Bills went 5-6 in Allen’s rookie season, though thanks to plus odds in three of the five wins — including +800 in a Week 3 win over the Minnesota Vikings — they finished the season with an ROI of +62.7.
If, for example, you bet $100 on the Bills’ moneyline in each of Allen’s 11 rookie starts, you would’ve profited nearly $700.
The Bills were profitable against the moneyline in Allen’s starts in 2019, 2020, and 2022. And they were profitable against the spread (ATS) in Allen’s starts in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.
That equals a combined moneyline and spread ROI of +16.5% in his first five seasons as a starting quarterback.
Rodgers, meanwhile, never recovered from a miserable first-year moneyline season, -34.4%. Despite a five-year ATS ROI of +16.9% — better than Allen’s +13.1% — Rodgers had a total ROI of +7.8% as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback from 2008-12.
As of June 13, the Allen and the Bills are favored over Rodgers and the New York Jets in Week 1. They’re a 1.5-point spread favorite and -120 moneyline favorite (Jets +100).
You can view updated NFL odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook.