BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) - With New York losing a congressional seat next year due to a population shift, it means New York Democrats have the power to draw a congressional map of their choosing.
"State legislatures around the country are going to re-draw congressional maps across the country," said Galen Druke of fivethirtyeight.com. "In New York State, it's very likely it's going to be a Republican representative who ends up losing their seat."
The population loss is largely in the rural parts of the state. Druke suggests that New York's 22nd congressional district, represented by Republican Claudia Tenney, of Syracuse, is vulnerable.
There is also wide speculation that the district currently represented by Rep. Tom Reed, a Southern Tier Republican, could be targeted. Reed is retiring at the end of the current term amid an allegation of sexual harassment. He currently represents a district that stretches from the Southern Tier to Western New York.
It will not be known for at least another year which House seat will be eliminated.
It's important to note that New York State actually gained population. It grew by about 4% over the past decade according to census numbers. It just didn't grow as fast as other states.
"It came down to 89 census returns," said Dave Levinthal. The Senior Washington Correspondent for Business Insider said if just 89 more residents had been counted, New York would be holding onto the seat. It is likely to raise questions about conducting a census in the midst of the pandemic. "There are so many questions about whether there were undercounts in so many places in the country." But the census bureau is standing firmly behind their count.
State legislatures around the country now determine how congressional boundary lines are drawn.
"For example, the 27th district, now occupied by Republican Chris Jacobs, is likely to look a lot different than it looks today," said Levinthal.
The redistricting process will include an appointed commission drawing new boundaries, based on a constitutional reform struck a decade ago.
The drawing of legislative boundaries is known as gerrymandering in which Lawmakers themselves essentially pick their voters.
A decade ago, New York lost two congressional seats due to population loss.
Florida has now surpassed New York as the third-largest state in the country behind California and Texas.
