Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - According to the New York State Department of Labor, nearly 3,000 people were laid off in 2024 in Western New York. That data was from companies who filed WARN notices to those laid off.
Of that total of employees who lost their jobs in Western New York last year, more than 1,300 were from the Sumitomo Rubber plant in Tonawanda that unexpectedly closed in early November. In addition, around half of those laid off in Western New York in 2024 came in the final quarter of the year.
Dr. Fred Floss, professor of economics and finance at SUNY Buffalo State, says while Western New York has been seeing jobs added over the full year, the region is still coming back from rates ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"We're still about 1,000 jobs below where we were before the pandemic started in November, December of 2019," detailed Dr. Floss in an interview with WBEN. "What happens is that we see jobs being created and jobs being lost, so we have to be careful not just to look at the number of jobs lost, but also the number of jobs gained."
Floss adds while the sudden layoffs at Sumitomo is an important component to this, it doesn't tell the whole story.
While unemployment in Western New York is relatively low, currently at about 3.6%, Floss advises caution when looking at unemployment locally.
"The definition of unemployment is how many people are actively looking for work, so as Western New York gets a little bit older and more people retire, the unemployment rate can go down, while we don't have as many jobs in Western New York," Dr. Floss noted. "That's why economists normally look at the employment statistics, and not just unemployment."
The good news for those laid off in 2024 is Floss believes there probably is a fair chance many of them, especially from the Sumitomo plant, will get back on their feet in 2025. However, there are some questions to consider.
"Do they have the education and the skill sets for the new jobs that are coming on? I suspect in manufacturing, which has been strong in Western New York and continues to be relatively strong compared to other parts that are losing employment, manufacturing in Western New York is fairly stable. So there should be job openings for individuals with those skill sets, but that doesn't mean that those individuals shouldn't be looking to go back to school, shouldn't be looking for additional training if they want to get good jobs with good benefits," Floss said.
So what is the outlook for the 2025 labor picture in Western New York? Dr. Floss feels it's uncertain because of what the federal government is going to do under the new Trump administration.
"Buffalo is very much part of the region that has Southern Ontario in it. And if tariffs are put into that, that may hurt the auto industry, for example, that may hurt a lot of other trading and service industry individuals in Western New York, which regularly work with Canada," Floss noted. "But if those tariffs don't happen, then I think we can look at Western New York to have a positive influence going forward."
Another potential impact locally on labor is the increase in minimum wage to $15.50 per-hour starting on Jan. 1. There are a couple of factors to take into consideration, according to Floss.
"One, because of inflation, that minimum wage increase is not going to be as cutting as it might have been. Individuals aren't, in relative terms, going to be making as much money as we would have expected a few years ago when there wasn't the inflation. But the other important thing to realize is that the rise in minimum wage, and we've looked at this since the minimum wage has been rising, has not cut into job growth," Dr. Floss noted. "In fact, Western New York has grown faster than comparable areas in Pennsylvania that didn't have a minimum wage increase. Part of that is because minimum wage workers spend their money mainly in Western New York, so it actually boosts the economy in Western New York and creates a few more jobs. Whereas not having the minimum wage jobs, they're not spending as much money, and the economy slows a little bit."
Going forward, Floss feels attention has to be given to where wages are going in the next year or year-and-a-half, and where the composition of the local workforce goes.
"Are we going to add more lower end, low-skilled jobs, or are we going to add more higher-paying jobs, like in manufacturing or in finance? That's going to go a long way in telling us how the economy is going to grow in the future," he said.