Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz made a peculiar and quick declaration last week, saying he plans on not seeking re-election if voters return him to office in November.
"I'm stating right now, if the people give me the opportunity to serve one more term, this will be the last time I ever run for County Executive," Poloncarz told reporters.
Jack O'Donnell of O'Donnell and Associates, a regular WBEN political analyst, says it's an unusual announcement, but notes Poloncarz may feel pushback from voters.
"I wouldn't be surprised that County Executive Polncarz is hearing that from voters. And so a good response to that is this will be my last term," said O'Donnell in a conversation with WBEN.
O'Donnell notes politicians do get tired out after a long period of time, saying it's harder to recruit staff, ending up with different folks who haven't been with you from the beginning.
Ken Kruly of PoliticsAndStuff.com says he'll take Poloncarz's statement at face value.
"He says he has some work that he wants to continue, but he feels that four terms are sufficient for an office. He's going to pursue that accordingly, assuming he's re-elected in November.," said Kruly with WBEN.
When it comes to unfinished business, Kruly says you have to look at the campaign as a whole.
"The whole campaign is he has a record that he's running on, that record that he can explain and discuss with the voters, and I think the campaign strategy for Poloncarz is really about the service that he's provided in the last 12 years, and they can make their judgement about that," Kruly explained. "We're talking about taxes, roads, social services, mental health services, health services, ECMC, other things. This is just a small part of a campaign strategy, I guess, if it is such a thing. I think the other issues are more important."
Kruly's assessment is one that O'Donnell agrees on.
"That's a reaction to having been there a little while," O'Donnell said. "You need to make clear that while you may not be offering a lot of new ideas or different ideas, you still plan to get the job done for voters."
Republican strategist Carl Calabrese says there's a thing in politics called "shelf life". He says executive leaders tend to wear out their welcome after several years.
"People want to change. They think it's time to move into a new direction," explained Calabrese with WBEN. "I think by him saying that, this will be his last term. He's acknowledging he thinks he may be getting close to bumping up to that shelf life."
As far as unfinished business goes, Calabrese calls that a risky strategy.
"He's been there for 12 years. To say it's unfinished business; I know lots of things happened in the last four years. I would think Chrissy Casilio is going to [exploit] some of those issues, especially his handling of COVID, which many people thought was very heavy-handed and very non-empathetic, in terms of the damage his policies were doing to to residents and businesses. I would think his handling of the snow storm is going to be an issue, and certainly this migrant issue is going to play big in this campaign," Calabrese pointed out.
What if he goes back on his word and seeks a fifth term? Calabrese goes back to the point of shelf life.
"If the shelf life doesn't dominate this election and produce his loss, then boy, you've got to put your money down. It will play a big role if he does decide to pursue a fifth term," Calabrese said.
