Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - While the 2024 political year was dominated by the race for the White House in Washington, D.C., 2025 will have a bit more prominence locally with the race for Buffalo City Hall.
For the first time in 20 years, residents of the City of Buffalo will be casting their ballots with Byron Brown's name not being a candidate for office. Brown formally resigned from office as mayor this past October to take over as the president and CEO of Western Regional OTB.
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"We haven't had a vacancy in Buffalo City Hall in over 20 years, so the race for Buffalo Mayor is already fast and furious," said Jack O'Donnell, managing partner with O'Donnell and Associates. "With Buffalo's looming fiscal issues, I think that's going to be a really hot race, and will say a lot about the future of Western New York."
To this point, there have been five candidates that have formally thrown their hat into the ring for the mayoral race in 2025:
- Retired Buffalo City Court judge James McLeod
- Community activist James Payne
- State Sen. Sean Ryan
- Former Buffalo Fire Commissioner Garnell Whitfield
- University District Councilman Rasheed Wyatt
Meanwhile, Buffalo's Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon is expected to also join the race and retain his office in City Hall as the mayor for a full four-year term.
"Maybe there'll be one or two more, who knows, but that will attract a lot of the attention, a lot of the money. It's a very important election, given the significance of city issues on finances and other things," said Ken Kruly of Politics and Stuff.
"We've got, what looks like, a multiple candidate contest, challenging Acting Mayor Scanlon, and it could be a very spirited Democrat primary," added Republican strategist Carl Calabrese in an interview with WBEN. "With a lot of candidates in a primary, and you're slicing up, what is usually, a very small turnout in the election, anything can happen. That's going to be one worth watching very closely."
While the list of candidates for Buffalo Mayor may grow by another name or two in the coming weeks, local political analysts feel it remains to be seen just how many of those candidates will be on the ballot come the June primary.
"It's really great to say you're running and say you're a candidate. It is a lot harder to raise the money, build the organization, recruit the volunteers, and, frankly, do the petitions and get on the ballot," O'Donnell said with WBEN.
"You need over 1,000 signatures on petitions, and then you've got to raise money to get yourself known by mailings or advertising and so forth, so the field might narrow," Kruly added. "Then after June, it sort of depends on whether the Republicans choose a candidate, but they often don't put up a candidate. So the June primary may be it, but that is a little bit up in the air right now."
Who appear to be the front-runners in the race for Buffalo City Hall in the very early goings? For O'Donnell, he's looking at, at least, three really strong candidates.
"Current Mayor Chris Scanlon - who although he hasn't announced, he certainly seems to be running - in Garnell Whitfield, and in State Senator Sean Ryan," he said. "And interestingly enough, out of the three of them, Ryan is the one who has represented the biggest portion of the City of Buffalo and gotten the most votes there, and also has the most money going into 2025."
Calabrese agrees with O'Donnell with Scanlon and Ryan being two of the big fish in the upcoming mayoral election in Buffalo.
"Acting Mayor Scanlon's got the incumbency advantage. He's got a very strong political base and political organization in South Buffalo, and again, in a low turnout primary, a big vote from South Buffalo could be critical in getting him elected," Calabrese explained with WBEN. "Sean Ryan, the [State] Senator, high profile, lots of money. He's got six figures in his bank account and probably the ability to maybe even double that. So he's going to be a player."
However, Calabrese figures a couple of the other candidates in the race could make matters interesting, especially come closer to the June primary.
"You've got the Councilman Rasheed Wyatt, who represents part of Sean Ryan's Senate District. If he pulls votes from what normally would go to Ryan, from that part of the Senate District, that helps Scanlan, hurts Ryan," Calabrese noted. "You've got Garnell Whitfield, who could be a very credible candidate as well. So it's gonna be complicated because of all the people involved. And as you know, Buffalo politics is ethnic, racial, neighborhood-oriented, and the more you slice up a small turnout, the more you can set up a surprise in an election."
With many residents in Buffalo being predominantly Democrat, is there any likelihood we see a Republican make a run for the mayor? Kruly doubts that to be the case.
"There's no names being mentioned," he noted. "There's been some suggestion that County Clerk Mickey Kerns, who is actually a Democrat but has won an election on the Republican line, might run for mayor, but that's the only name that I've heard so far. And time is coming short. The petitions will hit the street at the end of February, which is just about eight or nine weeks from now."
Calabrese also feels seeing a Republican on the ballot in Buffalo come November seems highly unlikely. However, there is another strategy he believes might be more likely to happen.
"The party may decide to pick a couple of Councilmatic seats that they could have a good chance of winning, try to elect some Republicans on the Common Council, and then build the party from there. That's probably the wisest strategy," Calabrese said. "Now, things can change. There could be a huge scandal that tars the entire Democrat party and all the candidates. Anything can happen in politics, but it's a really long shot for the Republicans to win the mayoral spot."
What are some of the other prominent local races that will garner some attention come November?
Across a number of local municipalities, there will be elections for town supervisors, especially those who are going to be term limited and vacating their seats. Perhaps the biggest such race is about to take place in the Town of Amherst.
"Brian Kulpa, who is the incumbent, is term limited and won't be running for re-election, so there'll be a new candidate," Kruly noted. "Who the Republicans will put up remains to be seen, but Amherst is a very big town, and I would think that might be a very competitive race."
Calabrese believes Amherst could see a very spirited race for Town Supervisor, especially following controversy and plenty of unrest amongst residents on policies the current Town Board is following.
Despite there being no Republicans on the Amherst Town Board, Calabrese feels there's one recent change in local politics that may make the race for Town Supervisor a bit more interesting.
"You have a new chairman for the Republican Party in Amherst, a person I know very well - former Town of Tonawanda Republican Chair and former Erie County Republican Chair, Bob Davis," Calabrese said. "I've worked with Bob, we cut our political teeth together in college and onward. If there's anybody who knows how to put together an organization in a campaign, it's Bob Davis."
When surveying other prominent elections across New York State, O'Donnell points to the impending mayoral race in New York City.
"New York City has an incumbent mayor in Eric Adams, who came in as sort of a darling of the moderate Democratic party, a pro-law enforcement Democrat, if you will. And he's in all kinds of trouble, not just because he was indicted, his poll numbers are way down. So seeing what happens with him next year, he's been certainly friendly with the Trump administration, maybe looking to cooperate on some of the immigration maneuvers from the Trump administration," O'Donnell noted.
O'Donnell adds there are some 4-to-7 looming big names who might run against him, including former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo being mentioned as a possible candidate.
"While New York City is a long way away, the Mayor of New York City and the direction of New York City has a lot to do with the direction of the State of New York, and even of the country at large. So we'll be watching that one closely," he said.
And then in Albany, O'Donnell feels eyes are going to be on reaction to what happened in the 2024 Presidential Race.
"We've got super majorities of Democrats in both the Assembly and the Senate, and obviously a Democrat, Kathy Hochul, as governor. And a lot of Democrats have taken different lessons from the 2024 Presidential Race. There are a big group of Assembly members, of State Senators who say Democrats lost because they weren't progressive enough, they weren't far-left enough. So they're already starting to introduce legislation to try to move the state further to the left as a reaction and a counterweight to what's going to happen with Republican control in Washington," O'Donnell laid out. "And then you've got more moderate Democrats, starting with Gov. Hochul, who think that Democrats need to do better at delivering on affordability, on safety, and on some of these other checkbook, affordability issues. So there's going to be a real contrast and a real battle in New York, starting in Albany for the soul of the Democratic Party."
As for what to watch for in Washington, D.C. come 2025, many will be paying attention to the promises of President-elect Donald Trump, and how they could have an effect locally.
"I'm thinking of the tariff impositions that could create issues with our neighbors in Canada, and the immigration issues," Kruly noted. "There's various social service or educational programs that the Trump administration is talking about eliminating that could have a direct impact locally, and might get the attention of people who are either running for office or already in office."
"Tariffs on China and some of the rest of the world are one thing, but he's also been very clear about tariffs on Canada, and what that would do in Buffalo and Western New York, what that would do for our manufacturing sector. Those will have huge impacts, so we will be watching that very closely and every day," Calabrese added.