BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) "Zeldin has a shot, but it's a long shot," said Republican strategist Carl Calabrese on WBEN Wednesday, the day after
Suffolk County Congressman Lee Zeldin won the GOP Gubernatorial primary with 44% of the vote.
"The disadvantages are many," added Calabrese. "Starting with the fact that there are more than three million more democrats than republicans enrolled in the state. It's about a 2 to 1 enrollment gap. That's a big problem for any Republican."
Back in 1994, when Republican George Pataki defeated then-Governor Mario Cuomo, democrats only had about a one million vote advantage. And there was something else in play. "Mario Cuomo basically reached his shelf life," said Calabrese. "Executives tend to have a shelf life of three terms. When you go for a fourth, that's when you have problems and people decide it's time for a change. I think it was a combination of Mario Cuomo reaching his shelf life and people ready for a change."
Calabrese said Pataki was also a really good candidate at the time. "He was the poster child for the kind of Republican candidate that you need to field, if you have any chance of winning in the state."
Zeldin does have one advantage. He will appear on two lines in November. The Republican and Conservative lines. Calabrese said he doesn't see any way for a Republican to win the state without the Conservative line.
"What he has to do now is unify the party and heal wounds after the 4 way Republican primary. Secondly, he has to raise lots of money. Kathy Hochul has gobs of it. For Zeldin to be competitive in TV markets, he has to crank up his fundraising. And third, he has to find issues that hit people's hot buttons," said Calabrese.
Hochul handily defeated her challengers in the Democratic primary Tuesday. She received 66% of the vote.
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But longtime political junkie Calabrese said Hochul is vulnerable in a number of areas when citing a recent Siena College poll.
"Her favorability is under 50%. Her job performance is under 50%. When asked if they would vote for her, or if they would prefer someone else,
she was under 50% on that."
There are also two issues that Zeldin can exploit according to Calabrese. Crime and fiscal responsibility. "92% of New Yorkers feel that crime is a serious issue. That's an incredibly high number. 71% of New Yorkers feel the state fiscal situation is a mess. These are issues that Zeldin can develop. Maybe he pulls off an upset. It would be an upset, given the demographics," he added.
