Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - As we get ready to fill up our Easter baskets this year, the price of chocolate hasn't risen significantly. However, come the fall in Western New York, it could a different, bitter story.
The core ingredient in chocolate is the cocoa bean, and Ted Marks of Fowler's says the price for a metric ton has shot up from $2,500 to $8,500. "For this Easter season, our prices are reasonably stable in comparison to where they were at the beginning of the year," says Marks.
Marks says he's got a good supply for the next couple of months, but there could be significant changes in pricing as early as June 1, "A lot of it depends on what the what the markets doing. If they come down a little bit. I think they're a little inflated right now. But they are what they are, and I'm forced to pay what I need to pay, to keep WNY in Fowler's Chocolates," says Marks.
He believes what's driving the prices is the demand has outstripped the supply of cocoa beans for the last two or three years, and it's now beginning to really show. "You're looking at ten percent, probably maybe even more, in price increases. Fortunately, it's not our only ingredient so if our chocolate price doubles, our prices don't double but they will have to reflect the increased cost to be sure. We'll probably take a little of that on the chin by lowering our margins a little bit to keep the local consumers from too much sticker shock," says Marks.
Prices have not risen significantly at Watson's Chocolates says Whitney Beecher. "I would say on average, maybe just five to ten percent, depending on what what the product is," says Beecher, adding that was the case at Valentine's Day as well.
Beecher thought she saw sticker shock when contracted for cocoa beans last September, when the price increased by 12 percent. "We're anticipating that our next contract is going to be really ugly," says Beecher, which is expected in the Fall. She says packaging costs, what labor looks like, what the chocolate looks like to try and stave off passing off much of the increase onto customers.
Over at Platter's in North Tonawanda, Joe Urban says he's not affected now because he's locked in until September. But for the people that buy spot market from distributors, it's affecting their bottom line quite a bit because the cocoa prices have gone up from a year ago.
Urban anticipates a ten percent price increase come fall. But he has another concern. "If things don't change going forward into 2025, some people may have trouble getting their hands on chocolate. As far as producers like Platter's, we're contracted through the end of 2024, but come 2025, we don't know what it's going to look like and it's not pretty," warns Urban. He says it's not keeping him up at night now, but that may not be the case in about six months.
He says this is unprecedented in the 50 plus years on the cocoa charts. "It's mostly weather related but I think part of what's going on is you've got speculators that are adding to it," explains Urban. "They see a market where prices are going up and up kind of like a real estate market and then everyone wants to jump on and you got flippers and that's what's going on in the cocoa market. Hopefully, something happens to make it stop," says Urban. He says if it does, it's possible the prices could come down fast for the cocoa. But if that doesn't happen it could get ugly.