BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) It doesn't feel like primary season. In fact, the only way to know that a congressional primary is coming up is by the radio, TV ads and lawn signs sprouting up across Western New York.
"There is a lot of confusion," said Ken Kruly of PoliticsandStuff.com.
The political analyst noted that voters are not conditioned to vote during the month of August. "They probably remember that there was a primary at the end of June. Plus, kids are getting ready to head back to school. It's going to be a hard sell."
The airwaves, both radio and TV, are filled with ads for the newly carved congressional seat between Nick Langworthy and Carl Paladino.
Kruly thinks a lot of the TV advertising is wasted money as most people watching are not eligible to vote (the primary is only for registered Republicans), or they don't live in the 23rd congressional district.
"Combine that with the fact that people watch less television in the Summer, and it all contributes to what is expected to be low turnout." Kruly expects turnout to be in the 10-15% range.
As a casual observation, (since no public polling has been done on the race) Kruly told Susan and Brian on WBEN Wednesday that he thinks Paladino is in the driver's seat at the moment. "He certainly has a lot more money to spend, or available, than Langworthy. Also, folks most likely to turn out to vote in the Republican primary are going to be ardent supporters of the MAGA movement, which plays into Paladino's hands," he said.
Paladino has a lot of name recognition. His name has regularly been in the news for easily the past decade. As for Langworthy, he is New York State GOP Chairman. But how many people know that? "In my long history of participating and observing political campaigns, I've never seen a party leader, who had not already held public office, ever win a public office. It's not the type of job that people pay attention to. It's inside baseball stuff," Kruly added.
Don't look for a debate between Paladino and Langworthy. Langworthy has asked for multiple debates. Paladino hasn't agreed to any. Kruly said Paladino considers himself ahead and sees no need to give attention to Langworthy.
Both Langworthy and Paladino are seeking to succeed retiring Republican Chris Jacobs, who said on June 3 he would not seek a second term.
The district spans seven counties and two television markets.
The winner of the August 23rd primary will face Democrat Max Della Pia in November.
