Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - The holiday season is here, and with that comes the ever-popular shopping season for people looking for a chance to cash in on a solid deal for the perfect gift to give, or even the right bargain for themselves.
Compared to the past couple of years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, "Black Friday" was a bit more active at retail stores and other businesses across the country. Saturday was more for the local "mom-and-pop" shops of the area, as they were featured for "Small Business Saturday". And, of course, Monday is set to be an active day again online for "Cyber Monday".
With concerns surrounding COVID-19 and now RSV playing a factor, in addition to other factors like crime, more consumers this holiday season are more compelled to be safe and stay indoors when shopping for the gifts they need.
"About 57% of the spending between [Black Friday] and Cyber Monday will be e-tail or online spending, and about 43% on land," said Burt Flickinger from Strategic Resource Group. "So good, not great. Adjusted for inflation, [Black Friday will] be flat, up about 1% versus the prior year, 2021."
While the popularity of Cyber Monday has increased with the evolution of the Internet over the last several years, Flickinger says it has really evolved in that people have been able to get a look at a great depth and range of different products.
"[Black Friday], they'll be going to the Made in Buffalo stores in Elma and the surrounding area to shop, but also shopping there and elsewhere from online ordering. What's significant is that Cyber Monday, in terms of total sales, is expected to be about $11 billion compared to Black Friday spending in the stores about $9 billion," he said. "Both are doing well, but a generation that grew up online is spending in the stores, the millennial group spending about 11% more in stores estimated for [Black Friday] versus the prior year. But at the same time, millennials do the majority of his or her purchasing online, and that continues to be the trend going forward."
As the years continue go on, the popularity of Cyber Monday continues to trend in an upward trajectory, while the number of people flocking to stores on Black Friday may continue to steadily decrease. However, Flickinger will still see a number of people continue to take part in deals both on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
"[Following] the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City [Thursday], Macy's will have very strong results in their stores that are open in Western New York and across America and worldwide. Macy's will have strong results in store, at the same time, Macys.com is the seventh-largest online retailer in the world. You'll see people do both, especially for clothes and shoes, which will be the No. 1 item this year after gift cards," Flickinger said. "People like to go to the stores to get the right fit, especially COVID spanning the course of three years, the CDC is reporting that 19% of all children between 2-19 are either overweight or obese, and 67% of women and 73% of men. So people will be going to stores to get the right fit, because America got bigger during COVID. So new clothes in bigger sizes."
So what other categories will people be flocking to the Internet to buy this Cyber Monday? Flickinger says one of the more notable category growths this year will be people shopping for their furry loved ones.
"We're going into Black Friday to Cyber Monday, people are spending more on his or her pet, per-pet versus what they're spending for people," he said. "With the birth rate about flat in the U.S. and the pet population growing at a very healthy rate, pets is a good category both in store and online."
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One notable aspect of Black Friday shopping this year that will also play a major role in Cyber Monday deals is the way an increased inventory of product will affect not only pricing, but how much people are willing to wait.
"Retailers have record-breaking amounts of unsold inventory - Target: 35% more unsold versus same time last year; Walmart: 25% more unsold versus the same home last year. The shoppers should wait and outsmart the stores, and only buy for what one needs for Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa," Flickinger said.
"Cyber Monday will be better because of excess inventory. Amazon had a relatively disappointing Prime Days last month, Alibaba had a disappointing Singles Day online a couple of weeks ago. So there's plenty of inventory online, and with two-thirds of Amazon retail being third-party sellers, they're very anxious to move the merchandise and close it out this calendar year so they're not hung up with excess inventory."
Just last year, a big concern heading into the shopping season for consumers were supply chain issues, ensuring that a product that was purchased arrives on time and doesn't get backlogged somewhere else around the globe.
This year's concerns heading into the holidays may be in potential strikes with certain transportation industries, particularly the railroad industry. As Flickinger points out, the earliest union workers could call for a strike is Dec. 5. However, he feels it will only affect holiday shopping a little bit, and much more of the calendar shopping season in 2023.
"The rail strike, it's four of the 11 unions are talking about striking, but typically the precedent will ask for an extension into next year. So while the strike vote has been taken for a strike as early as Dec. 5, I do a lot of work with the labor unions and typically they'll do a 30-day extension," Flickinger said. "So hopefully if and when it happens, it won't happen until next year and be relatively modest instead of massive national shutdown strikes like the steel strike of 1959 that really compromised the steel industry, consumers and prices in the Western New York, Buffalo-Niagara region at the same time."
More of our conversation with Flickinger is available in the player below: