BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) "We've got a race on our hands." That is one conclusion that Albany insider Jack O'Donnell is taking from polling in final stretch of the New York Governor's race.
Two new polls in the New York Governor's race put Lee Zeldin either slightly ahead of, or slightly behind Gov. Kathy Hochul, suggesting
a down-to-the-wire race, in less than a week.
A Trafalgar Group poll has Zeldin with 48% support, versus 47% for Hochul,
with about 4% of voters undecided.
An Emerson College poll, has Hochul up by 8 percentage points over Zeldin, 52% to 44% with 3% of voters undecided.
"I think it's going to come down who is going to turn out and that's one of
the differences you see in each of the polls." O'Donnell, of O'Donnell and Associates, said each poll that he's looking at predicts different numbers of Republicans, and Democrats turning out to vote from Long Island to Upstate.
Predicting just who is going to vote is the x factor in the election. WBEN asked O'Donnell how pollsters try to figure that out in the days leading up to the election.
"The surveys do it by calling people on cell phones to ask if they're planning to vote." He admits it's imprecise. "A lot of it comes down to watching what the campaigns are doing and where they're doing it."
Just in the past week, Zeldin held a couple of big rallies on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley. He's brought in national political figures (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin) to try to juice turnout in those areas.
Hochul has been focused on inner cities. She was in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse last weekend. Her attention is now on New York City and she has rallies planned with Hillary Clinton in the coming days to encourage voter turnout.
Which side has the edge when it comes to voter enthusiasm? "Both sides are showing a lot of enthusiasm," said O'Donnell. "But you have to see that some momentum is with the Zeldin campaign. His numbers have come up, his fundraising has increased and he certainly seems to have momentum on his side. Whether that is enough to overcome the democratic enrollment edge in New York State, that remains to be seen."