BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) "It's total chaos in the Republican party," said Ken Kruly from PoliticsandStuff.com on WBEN Monday.
"Ten days ago Chris Jacobs was the Republican candidate for Congress. He had a conservative voting record and the party was fine with him. "He took a stance on gun control and poof, gone. The party ran him out in a week."
The political whiplash resulted from Jacobs no longer being in lock step with the GOP on guns.
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Kruly said both parties are at fault for this. "People have gone to their corners and they're dug-in. It's a bad development for the country all the way round," he added.
Could Jacobs run as an Independent, instead? The answer is no. "The petitioning process is over for this year. Jacobs could not run as an Independent." Kruly said Jacobs could have stayed and toughed-out a Republican primary, but he chose not to do that. Adding, "he has left the whole situation in turmoil."
Republican strategist Carl Calabrese has a different view. "The fact is this was not his old district. There are new counties and new people that he doesn't know, and doesn't have a relationship with. He could have overcome it if this was his old district. But with his switch on gun control, it's very difficult, as they say, on a second try to make a first impression."
Calabrese said there are certain core issues in politics for officer holders and constituents. "There are certain issues that you really can't compromise on. If you do, you lose your base. This is one of those issues with Republican voters," he said. "If you tell us you are pro second amendment, and you campaign on that, and then change the rules in the 9th inning, there are going to be severe consequences."
There is a major dichotomy in polling on guns. People are saying one thing. Party leaders are doing another. "Seventy to eighty percent of people are in support of many reforms that are being talked about. But party leaders seem to be more content with dealing with the base. The party depends on its base for primary votes," said Kruly.
How did the issue become so black and white, or left and right? "It's been going on for quite a while," said Calabrese. "It has happened through re-apportionment. Both parties have re-apportioned their congressional districts in such a way that the vast majority of districts are safe districts in November elections. But what incumbents fear is not November elections, but primaries. The concern is if they stray from core positions, they are going to be challenged in a primary and face defeat at the polls because they are either not conservative enough or not liberal enough.
Buffalo developer and former gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has already said he intends to run for the seat. Kruly said it will be hard for any Republican to get in the race.
"A committee on vacancies, made up of party leaders will select a candidate to substitute for Jacobs. State GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy would have a lot of influence, if he wants to be the candidate. Marc Cenedella, a Fredonia businessman, has been circulating petitions. But petitions are due Friday and you need at least 1062 valid signatures. There's not a lot of time," he said.
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