ALBANY, N.Y. (WBEN/AP) — Proposed political maps released by the leaders of New York's Democrat-dominated legislature would give the party an advantage in 22 of the state's 26 congressional districts and mean re-election trouble for several Republican members of the U.S. House.
The new maps, released late Sunday, could lead to Democrats picking up as many as three House seats and Republicans losing as many as four in the 2022 election.
An initial vote on the new congressional and legislative maps, which are being re-drawn as part of the nation's once-per-decade redistricting process, could happen within days.
"The state lost one congressional district, because of population shifts in the country. For the remaining 26, there's a proposal out now to re-draw the remaining 26 districts," as Ken Kruly from PoliticsAndStuff.com explained. "There are going to be some changes made, particularly in the Upstate area, in the Buffalo area, which will be fairly significant."
Republicans had braced for Democrats to use their dominating majority in the state legislature to re-draw district boundaries in a way that would carve up GOP strongholds.
The new maps would do that, forcing several incumbent Republicans to run in districts re-drawn to make them far more Democrat-friendly.
In New York City, U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a Staten Island Republican, would have to run in a district stretched to include some of Brooklyn's most liberal neighborhoods, including the one now home to former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Republican running for governor, would see his eastern Long Island district stretched, too, to include Democratic suburbs closer to New York City.
The congressional map in upstate New York would be realigned to create three Republican super districts — one of them now home to U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking House Republican — but make it tough for the GOP to win anywhere else upstate.
In part, the maps reflect population shifts in the state. New York City, where Democrats dominate, gained 629,000 people in the 2020 Census, while rural upstate areas home to many Republicans saw their populations shrink.
Currently, Republicans hold eight of New York's 27 seats in Congress.
New York's redistricting process is being closely watched nationally, because it is one of just a few states where Democrats hope to use their map-drawing power to offset significant gains that Republicans are expected to make elsewhere in the battle for control of the U.S. House.
New York's new maps were, at least in theory, supposed to have been the product of a bipartisan commission, newly created by voters in a 2014 referendum.
But the commission's Republican and Democratic members — predictably — couldn't come to consensus on what the maps should like look like, leaving the legislature free to come up with maps of its own.
"They're going to be re-drawing lines that's gonna necessitate some new districts, it's going to necessitate incumbents deciding if they want to continue to run in a new district or if they want to move into a new district. And then all of it could end up in court, as well," said Republican political analyst Carl Calabrese on the matter. "The Republican party might challenge the final lines, and a judge may end up drawing the actual boundaries. So we're really just at the beginning of a very complicated and contentious process."
So how will the re-mapping of the congressional districts affect the Western New York region?
"Brian Higgins' district is essentially the same with some minor additions to round up for population. However, Erie County is now going to have three different representatives, in part," Kruly explained. "One district's going to go from Lewiston, taking in part of Northern Erie County, and all the way up to Watertown, circling around Rochester. A very long and convoluted district. The other change would be in the southern part of Erie County, which will go actually from Lake Erie and extend all the way over to Broome County in Binghamton. That one, in some respects, follows the Tom Reed district. It's already existed for the last 10 years, but it does change by adding portions of Erie County."
It was announced on Monday from Congressman Jacobs that he intends to seek re-election in the newly numbered 24th Congressional District, should the maps released Sunday night become law.
"It's quite an endeavor for a person deciding to run in a district that is going to stretch from Lewiston to Watertown. There's a lot of political ground game that's going to have to go on in the case of Congressman Jacobs," Calabrese said. "Congressman Jacobs is going to be looking at a whole lot of new area. New municipalities, new issues, new opinion leaders, new possible opponents. All of that will have to be calculated into his campaign strategy and tactics."
Once the maps are approved by the legislature, they may still have to overcome legal challenges. In Ohio, aggrieved groups have persuaded courts to toss out heavily gerrymandered political maps.
Republicans argue Democrats have gone too far to manipulate political boundaries to benefit their party.
"This is what parties do. I mean, I'm not criticizing either party, because both parties do it. When they have control of the process, they draw maps to maximize their advantages, in terms of running and winning seats, and to really handicap the opposition," Calabrese said with regards to gerrymandering. "They can do all kinds of very creative things in drawing districts, especially now with the help of computers and demographics where you can really, as someone once said, it's gotten to the point where the politicians now choose their voters as opposed to voters choosing their politicians because of the ability to map and break districts down and create lines. It's quite creative, and it can lead to some really startling results."
Lawmakers face pressure to finalize district maps before March 1, when political candidates can start gathering signatures for petitions to run for office.
"It'll be interesting to see how this plays out," Kruly said. "Legislature, evidently, is going to be looking to pass the re-districting this week. It's probably going to be subject to some sort of a court challenge. How long that might drag things out is a question. Also, time is of the essence, because of petitions for the 2022 election probably need to go out by the end of February. So things have to be moving along pretty quickly."
Statewide, about 50% of registered voters are Democrats and about 22% are Republicans.