BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) "This was more than just a rejection. This was a total rebuke and a slap down of the governor, the senate majority leader and the speaker of the assembly." Republican strategist Carl Calabrese after reading the 40 page majority decision on redistricting from the State Court of Appeals, the state's highest court.
Calabrese was struck by the court's strong language in condemning the process. "The judges said that the governor and legislature essentially did an
'end around' of the constitution and produced a flawed map to the point
where the court not only rejected it, but has inserted itself in redrawing new maps."
The decision by the high court changes the whole political landscape going forward.
Redistricting has now been sent back to the Supreme Court level where a judge has been tasked with redrawing the lines with the help of an expert, which the court referred to as a "special master." Calabrese said a deadline has been given in May to come up with the new lines. This would be the final word for this cycle. There would be no more challenges.
This throws the upcoming June 28 primary into chaos. "They won't make a decision on moving that until after consultation with boards of elections across the state," said Calabrese. He believes, however, that it will result in primaries being rescheduled for sometime in August.
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In 2014, voters passed a constitutional amendment setting up an independent redistricting commission. It was an attempt to get the process out of the legislature and to make it more bipartisan. But many, including Calabrese, believe the commission was set up to fail.
"The redrawing of lines is very complicated You just can't draw lines on a map.
There are federal laws that say you can't split neighborhoods and you have to be cognizant of racial disparities."
Does this give former governor Andrew Cuomo more time to consider running for the state's top job? "No," said Calabrese. "The election law and election calendar is already set. You would need an act by the legislature to change that. And it would need to be signed by the governor. I doubt that will happen."
The high court's decision does affect a high profile state senate race in Western New York. Senator Ed Rath (R) was put into a district with Senator Tim Kennedy (D) where Democrats have a 44-thousand vote majority. Faced with that situation, Rath pulled out of the race. With a different map, Rath might not have pulled out of the race and we might have had a spirited contest between two incumbents," said Calabrese.
As for congressional races in Western New York, it's unclear who will benefit from the redrawing of district lines by a judge. "I would think Republicans will benefit overall. They can't do any worse. They may pick up a seat or two coming out of this process.
Calabrese said the National Republican Committee is looking very favorably at this. He thinks the forces at play for the congressional midterms, right now, favor Republicans, even with aggressive redistricting by Democrats.
"If the election for congress was held today, I believe the Democrats would lose somewhere in the vicinity of what former President Bill Clinton lost in his first midterm. which was 52 House seats, and what former President Barack Obama lost in his first midterm, which was 63 House seats. But we're still six months away and that could change."
