Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - On the day that Erie County Democrats are expected to endorse a candidate for the Feb. 3 special election for Sean Ryan's seat in the New York State Senate, a local political observer is offering his thoughts on the race.
Carl Calabrese, longtime Republican strategist, told WBEN on Wednesday he expects three things to happen in the upcoming special election:
1.) A low turnout
2.) Republicans to put on a full court press
3.) A heavy campaign concentration on the Town of Amherst
Ryan, who represented the 61st District in the New York State Senate for five years, was sworn in as Mayor of Buffalo last week. The 61st district includes parts of the City of Buffalo, the City of Tonawanda, the Towns of Amherst, Grand Island, and Tonawanda, and the Villages of Kenmore and Williamsville.
Dan Gagliardo is the endorsed Republican in the race for NY-61. Meanwhile,
longtime Democrat Jeremy Zellner is expected to get the Democratic nod Wednesday night. Assemblyman Jon Rivera is expected to challenge Zellner in the upcoming June primary.
Calabrese says 42% of the voters in the district reside in the Town of Amherst.
"They're running Dan Gagliardo, who did well but came up short in the race for Amherst Town Supervisor. He came within 1,400 votes," Calabrese said. "Given the advantage the Democrats enjoy of over 14,000 more Democrats than Republicans, it was an impressive showing. They are going with him, and hoping for a low turnout so that Republicans can out-produce the Democrat organization."
The big challenge, he noted, is going to come from Zellner.
"He's going to move heaven and earth to make sure his organization is not embarrassed by a Republican," Calabrese explained. "You're going to see a spirited race by Dan Gagliardo and the Republicans, and a heavy concentration on the Town of Amherst."
Calabrese expects turnout as low as 12%-to-14% for the Feb. 3 special election. He added this is a tough time of year to get people to vote,
especially if weather is an issue, and because people are not used to voting at this time of year.
The special election is for the current term that runs though the end of the year. Zellner and Rivera are expected to continue campaigning for a primary in June, where voters will decide who will be on the ballot in November.