Buffalo, NY (WBEN) - With Sean Ryan taking the oath of office as Buffalo Mayor, his State Senate seat is now vacant. The special election called by Governor Hochul could be the beginning of a very busy year of elections for Democrats.
Erie County Democratic Committee Chairman Jeremy Zellner is running for the 61st State Senate seat. Also running are fellow Democrat Jon Rivera, and Dan Gagliardo, who ran for Amherst Supervisor as a Republican. Carl Calabrese says there are two factors that could give Gagliardo an advantage. "It certainly gives him an advantage that some of the Democrat vote might be split between Jeremy Zellner and Rivera. So that plays in his advantage," says Calabrese. "The other advantage that Gagliardo has is that this is a special election in February. It's tough enough to get people to come out to vote in primary elections scheduled in June, special elections in the middle of winter, they are tough. They're a bear to get people to vote. So it could be a very, very low voter turnout." He says some people are saying turnout could be as low as 13%. If that's the case, Calabrese says the party in the minority in terms of voter registration has a chance to pull off a surprise and to pull off an upset. Republicans have a significant voter registration disadvantage.
However, Calabrese says Gagliardo still has a lot to overcome. "There's some 90,000 registered Democrats, versus about 40,000 registered Republicans and 37,000 Independents. And so that's a big hill to climb. And you also have the factor here that the Democratic candidate running, Jeremy Zellner, is chairman of the Democrat Party. He is not going to want to be embarrassed by his organization producing a low vote turnout and losing a special election. So you can bet that Jeremy Zellner will be doing everything he can to make sure his organization is functioning at peak efficiency, to make sure he's not embarrassed," explains Calabrese.
Calabrese says this special election could be the beginning of a busy election year for Democrats. "The candidates for a special election are not chosen by the party voters in a primary of any sort, it's chosen by the party leadership, and that's how Jeremy Zellner got the endorsement and avoided any type of contest for this race," notes Calabrese. "However, if he is successful in winning in February, he will then have to face a general party primary in June, and that's where Rivera may come into it and enter and force a contested primary. And then, of course, there's the issue is, does Rivera stay on the Working Families Party line going forward into November?"
The special election is set for February 3rd.