Referral claims for refugee protection in Canada from people in the U.S. have already surpassed last year’s total, based on data from Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). These referrals also spiked the last time President Donald Trump was in office.
While there were 204 U.S. claim referrals to the board’s Refugee Protection Division total last year, 245 claims were referred to the RPD from January through June of this year. Trump was inaugurated in January.
For some perspective, there were 216 referrals listed from Afghanistan during that same time period this year, 62 listed from El Salvador, 2,784 listed from Mexico, 265 listed from Palestine, 260 listed from Syria, 403 listed from Venezuela and 131 listed from Yemen.
At the start of former President Joe Biden’s term in 2021, there were 118 claim referrals from the U.S., with the same number the following year – both a drop from 154 in 2020. In 2023, the number of referrals increased to 157.
However, back in 2013 – the first year that the IRB has data for – there were just 69 referrals. That was during the second term of former President Barack Obama, and while he was in office during 2014 and 2015 referrals were at 88 and 69 respectively. They increased to 129 in 2016, when Trump was campaigning against Democratic candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
During Trump’s first year in office in 2017, the referrals skyrocketed to 869. In 2018, they were still higher at 642, followed by 423 in 2019.
When asked by Newsweek about the referral increase this year, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said: “Why does Newsweek care about this .00007 percent of the population who want higher taxes, worse health care, and anti-American trade policies?”
Since the start of his second term, Trump has pushed hard for strict new immigration policy, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in major cities, the establishment of “Alligator Alcatraz” and more. He has also engaged in tariff wars with countries across the world, including Canada, Mexico and China. Those are particularly notable since they are some of the country’s major trading partners, and these tariffs are expected to raise prices here in the U.S. Republicans have also blamed Canada for bad air quality in the U.S.
Bloomberg reported this week that officials from the U.S. and Canada are expected to discuss tariffs soon. That outlet has also reported on an influx of people from the U.S. attempting to cross the border into Canada. It said that “during the first six days of July, Canadian officials at the Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle border crossing – the busiest land port between New York and Quebec – received 761 asylum claims, a more than 400% increase from the same period a year ago.”
In Canada, refugee advocates, federal government departments and immigration lawyers were already bracing for asylum claimants from the U.S. in January, according to the CBC.
“With Trump, crystal balls are hard to keep clear,” said Gabriela Ramo, past chair of the Canadian Bar Association's immigration section, per the outlet.
In addition to the crackdown on illegal immigration, reasons why people might be seeking to leave the U.S. cited by Newsweek include U.S. policy shifts and court rulings have restricted access to gender-affirming care, limited who can serve in the military, and imposed rules on participation in sports and the use of certain facilities. This month, Audacy reported that the president’s approval rating even among his own party was slipping. This Tuesday, Gallup reported that Trump’s polling was “tepid” this month at 40%. Economist approval tracking updated Tuesday showed that his rating was up slightly compared to the previous week at 41%.