Buffalo, N.Y (WBEN) - If you have work to do outside this weekend, Saturday will be your best friend, with mainly dry, yet cool, conditions.
"Sunday, is when things get interesting," meteorologist Andy Parker tells WBEN.
What Andy describes as a cold core low will make itself home over Western New York Sunday, with cold rain on one side of the system and a wet snow on the other.
"I'm expecting to see a rain event at the start(Sunday), temperatures that may be in the 40's...and then we'll kind of see the rain mix in with snow mixed with rain," Parker tells WBEN.
The lake effect may play a trick on areas north of the Buffalo metro Sunday as well, Parker cautions, with slightly colder temperatures closer to Lake Ontario.
"It may be cool enough that we start mixing in wet snowflakes and have a slushy accumulation in Niagara and Orleans counties during the day on Sunday," Parker says, with areas in the southern tier remaining wet much of Sunday.
As for accumulations Sunday?
"It would not be surprising for some areas to pick up a slushy accumulation by Monday morning."
Lake Effect Switch Flips Monday
In a nutshell, beginning Monday, Parker tells us, "We've got two days that will be as January as anything else."
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30's with a gusty wind and the lake effect switch will flip to the 'on' position, Parker cautions.
But where will the lake effect take aim?
The wind will generally be from the northwest, Parker says, targeting the less populated areas to the south.
"This takes that big fire hose of snow off Lake Erie toward the City of Buffalo, that's off the table."
Given the direction of the wind, the lake effect will only have the north to south shorter fetch of Lake Erie to generate less intense bands of lake effect snow. "That generally allows the Chautauqua Ridge, areas of Chautauqua County, Erie, Pennsylvania does well on this one, Mayville, Bemus Point...those spots are going to see the accumulation(Monday-Tuesday)."
While there will be several inches of accumulation well south south of the city, it will be more of a nuisance type lake effect event for metro Buffalo, Parker assures. And, any snow that does fall, will stick around due to the colder temperatures.
But fear not, when it comes to cleaning up the yard for fall.
"If you didn't get your leaves raked up, don't worry...you're going to see your grass again....this will melt-off by Wednesday."