Plenty of story lines as Vikings open at home Sunday against an underrated Falcons team
By Jeff Diamond, former Vikings GM who is co-hosting Monday Night Purple with Joe Anderson this season on Monday nights on News Talk 830 WCCO. Next show is Monday, September 9 from 6-7 pm at B-52 Burgers and Brew in Inver Grove Heights with all-pro safety Harrison Smith as the player guest following the opener against Atlanta. Jeff also co-hosts Purple Sunday Postgame with Henry Lake which will follow the coverage of Twins-Indians this Sunday afternoon.
Opening day for the Vikings is coming up on Sunday—hooray! No more meaningless preseason games when the starters make cameo appearances if they play at all. It’s time for the real deal beginning Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium with a noon kickoff against an underrated Atlanta team.
There are so many story lines for the 2019 Vikings but here are a dozen that head my list:
1.How will Kirk Cousins fare in Year 2 as a quarterback primarily under center as opposed to in shotgun, more on the move with bootlegs and rollouts and utilizing more play action in Kevin Stefanski’s new offense (with lots of input from Gary Kubiak)? And how much hurry-up, no huddle offense will the new scheme feature in an attempt to tire out the defense?
2. The offensive line is obviously such a critical factor in how this season will play out. Will the O-line really be improved in the new zone blocking scheme that will emphasize more effective running and in pass protection (especially when they face the Bears in Week 4 and Week 17)? We’ll be watching the play of No. 1 pick Garrett Bradbury at center, free agent signee Josh Kline at right guard and Pat Elflein moving from center to left guard. And Riley Reiff needs to stay healthy so he can have a better season at left tackle while second year right tackle Brian O’Neill comes off a preseason arm injury and hopes to continue his fine play from last year.
3. Dalvin Cook has looked terrific in training camp and on his 85 yard TD run against the Cardinals in his only preseason appearance. Can he stay healthy for 16 games and be the 2,000 plus combined yards rushing and receiving back that the Vikings envision?
4. How much impact will talented No. 2 pick Irv Smith Jr. make as he joins fellow tight end Kyle Rudolph, the dynamic receiver duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs and Cook out of the backfield as an outstanding set of offensive skill position players.
5. Defensively, what are the tweaks to his system that Coach Mike Zimmer has hinted at as he tries to slow down the high flying offenses he’ll face this season beginning with Falcons QB Matt Ryan and one of the best receivers in the NFL in Julio Jones.
6. On the D-line, will Everson Griffen return to top form to complement Pro Bowl DE Danielle Hunter and how impactful will talented defensive lineman Stephen Weatherly be as an inside and outside pass rusher?
7. Will Xavier Rhodes return to his top form that made him a Pro Bowl corner? If Rhodes is asked to take on the opponent’s top receiver as in the past, he’ll have a huge test the first three weeks of the season as he faces Atlanta’s Jones, Green Bay’s Davante Adams and the Raiders’ Antonio Brown.
8. Will Anthony Barr be given more opportunities to rush the passer and will he make more impact plays in the first year of his $13.5 million per year deal?
9. When will last year’s top pick Mike Hughes return to action now that he’s off the injured list and is he ready for a bigger role in advance of a possible starting spot in 2020?
10. On special teams, the biggest question is if kicker Dan Bailey can return to his past Pro Bowl form as he comes off a good training camp?
11. How will the new punter Britton Colquitt (who also is expected to be the holder for Bailey) and new snapper Austin Cutting perform in their roles?
12. Will new special teams coach Marwan Maalouf lead an improved group overall and can Ameer Abdullah, Chad Beebe, Bisi Johnson and perhaps Mike Boone be effective kick and punt returners?
Atlanta in the opener is not to be taken lightly:
This shapes up as an exciting opening game between two teams with a lot of similarities. Both the Vikings and Falcons come off disappointing seasons—Minnesota at 8-7-1 and Atlanta at 7-9-- after being playoff teams in 2017 and Atlanta was a Super Bowl team in 2016. But there’s plenty of highly talented, Pro Bowl caliber players on both teams and it would not surprise me if these teams meet again come playoff time in January.
Among the other factors in common are that both teams have head coaches who are former defensive coordinators and both Mike Zimmer and Dan Quinn make the calls in-game and run their defenses with base 4-3 schemes.
Zimmer and Quinn will be trying to stop high powered passing games that the Vikings and Falcons feature although the teams definitely want to improve on poor run games from last season (Atlanta ranked 27th, Minnesota 30th) to set up their play action passing game. We know all about Jones, Thielen and Diggs but second year receiver Calvin Ridley of the Falcons is dangerous (10 TD catches last season) and second year receiver Chad Beebe and rookie Irv Smith Jr. will have opportunities if too much attention is paid to Thielen, Diggs and Rudolph.
The starting running backs—Minnesota’s Cook and Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman—are former Florida State backs (Cook followed Freeman as the Seminoles starter) who have battled injuries. Cook has missed 19 games over two seasons with knee and hamstring injuries and Freeman played only two games last season due to knee and groin injuries. Both players are great talents rushing and receiving and if they can stay healthy for the entire season, it will boost their teams’ chances to return to the playoffs.
Both teams will bring new offensive coordinators to the opener—Stefanski for the Vikings (with an assist from Kubiak) and Dirk Koetter for the Falcons (he’s a past OC in Atlanta and most recently was Tampa Bay’s head coach for three years).
The two teams also feature veteran, former Pro Bowl kickers after the Falcons cut ex-Viking Blair Walsh last week and re-signed their long-time kicker--44-year old Matt Bryant-- while the Vikings will have Dan Bailey entering his ninth NFL season.
My pick for Vikings vs. Falcons and for the Vikings 2019 record:
Winning the opener always is important as teams want to get off to a good start and a loss in Week 1 really puts the pressure on for a win in Week 2 to avoid an 0-2 start. And Week 2 won’t be easy for either team with the Vikings headed to Green Bay and the Falcons hosting the Eagles on Sunday night.
I expect a close, exciting opener with the two potentially prolific offenses very even. I think the Minnesota defense--fourth ranked last year--is stronger than Atlanta’s D that ranked 28th last season but they were without Pro Bowl safety Keanu Neal who tore his ACL in the season opener. Two other players to watch on the Falcons defense are an excellent defensive tackle in Grady Jarrett who will test Bradbury in his first real game and defensive end Vic Beasley who led the NFL with 15.5 sacks in 2016 but fell off to five sacks each of the last two seasons. He’ll line up most of the time against Reiff who will need to be on his game to neutralize Beasley.
The Falcons defense gave up a league-high 49% in third down conversions and I think Cousins and his offensive mates will move it through the air and Cook will have a good game on the ground and with receptions out of the backfield.
A key to the game will be how much pressure the Vikings defense can put on Ryan to slow the passing attack and make it difficult for him to have time to find Jones and Ridley. Crowd noise always helps the pass rushers and hinders the offensive linemen and we know U.S. Bank Stadium will be loud.
So I’ll take the home Vikings on a late Dan Bailey field goal…27-24 Minnesota and then it will be off to Lambeau Field.
For the season record, I have the Vikings going 11-5 despite a tough second half schedule with games at Kansas City, Dallas, the L.A. Chargers and Seattle. I predict the division race will come down to the December 29 season finale at home against the Bears with the Vikings winning that game and the NFC North to return to the playoffs. I’ll hold off on any postseason prognostications until we see how the season unfolds, how the NFC playoff opponents are shaping up and who has home field advantage.
Enjoy an exciting Sunday with the Vikings opener while the Twins try to increase their AL Central lead with Cleveland in town.
Jeff Diamond was the NFL Executive of the Year in 1998 after the Vikings' 15-1 season. He also is former president of the Tennessee Titans. He does sports/business consulting, media and speaking work including corporate and college speaking on Negotiation, Management, Leadership and Sports Business--contact him at diamondj4@comcast.net