Vineeta Sawkar, Host - The Morning News: 90-72
Jimmy Erickson, Executive Producer - The Morning News: 85-77
Lindsey Peterson - News Director: 82-80
Dan Edwards, Digital Content Manager: 95-67
Joe Hiti, Digital News Producer: 80-82
Dan Cook, Producer - Drivetime with DeRusha: 85-77
2022 Minnesota Twins: 78-84
Well, aren't we an optimistic bunch at the Good Neighbor? That didn’t work out very well, did it?
Even the most pragmatic of WCCO Radio prognosticators had the Twins finishing better than their dismal 2022 outcome. Which leads to the inevitable question: How did we get it so wrong?
There are three main points of failure - and in a season where you acquire the top free agent on the market, missing the playoffs is UNQUESTIONABLY a failure - that led to the Twins third-place finish in the most winnable (read: worst) division in all of Major League Baseball.
Lack of Pitching
While this isn’t the only point of failure, it’s the most significant one, and one that was foreseeable all the way back to Spring Training in Fort Myers.
“But that pitching staff. Oh, that pitching staff.” - Dan Cook
“The issue by late summer will be pitching depth. The bullpen is going to get stressed and it won't be enough to catch the White Sox.” - Lindsey Peterson (right idea, wrong opponent)
“The key to the season will be the pitching staff. Can the starters stay healthy and eat innings?” - Dan Edwards
Anyone who took an honest look at the roster as the team headed north to start the season had serious questions about the rotation, and some level of uncertainty about the bullpen. Then the worst thing that could have happened, did. They played WAY above their heads for the first two months of the season. The team sat at 30-21 at the end of May with the starters doing enough to consistently hand leads to the bullpen, the relievers holding most of those leads, and the lineup scoring enough runs to bail them out when they didn’t.
Why is that the worst thing that could have happened? Because it provided the front office with the justification it needed to stand pat with the roster instead of getting an early start on acquiring more and better talent to bolster what was looking like a playoff team.
By the time they got around to adding arms at the trade deadline, the team had played two months under .500 (23-27) and injuries (we’ll talk about those in a moment) had started to take a toll on the lineup.
Despite the kvetching from some fans, lifting starters after two times through the rotation and handing the game to the bullpen is NOT inherently a losing strategy. However, when the bullpen doesn’t have the arms to consistently pick up those innings, it’s not a winning one either. The Twins found themselves stuck. Leave the starters in longer and watch them get hammered by that third time through the lineup? Or turn to the relievers, cross your fingers and hope. It seemed no matter which lever they pulled, the result was the same: Poor.
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Injuries
The Twins have lost over 2300 days of player time to the IL this season. Compare that to just over 1700 in 2021. And 11 different players spent at least 100 days on the IL in 2022 (stats courtesy of spotrac.com).
So while fans and pundits grumble at using injuries as an “excuse” for the Twins poor outcome, it can’t simply be ignored.
It also can’t be explained away with bad luck. Too many of those 11 players with 100+ days on the IL did so over multiple stints, and with similar if not identical injuries. Were the diagnoses incorrect? Was the rehab insufficient? Were players rushed back before they were ready? These are all fair questions which would warrant an examination of the Twins training staff and protocols. At a minimum there would seem to be significant room for improvement. And it’s not unreasonable to wonder if a complete revamp of that part of the organization is in order.
Talent Acquisition Failures
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have to own a significant amount of the blame for this season’s failure. In the six seasons since they’ve been at the helm, their track record when it comes to free agent signings and trades has been poor.
2022 is a case in point.
Credit where credit is due, signing Carlos Correa was a brilliant coup. Sure, superagent Scott Boras laid the deal in their lap, and all they had to do was have the common sense to say “yes”. But it still counts as perhaps the biggest free agent signing in club history, even if it’s only for one year.
And the trade with the Yankees that freed up the money for Correa should also be a credit to 'Falvine' as well. Gary Sanchez has been adequate and likely is headed for another roster next year. But Gio Urshela has been better than anyone had a right to expect. And even if both had been flat-out awful, it still would have counted as a win because of the signing of Correa that was to come.
Beyond that?
Sonny Gray has been decent. Though giving up on first-round pick Chase Petty was a steep price to pay. Call that one a wash.
Chris Archer never got out of “stretching him out” mode and finished the year with a 4.56 ERA in just over 100 innings pitched and a 0.0 rWAR. That’s a failure.
Dylan Bundy showed a few brief flashes early, but quickly reverted to his career form, which has been suboptimal. He finished with a 4.89 ERA in 140 innings pitched and a -0.3 rWAR. That’s a failure.
Chris Paddack came over in the trade with San Diego for Taylor Rogers. Paddack made just 5 starts before an elbow injury ended his season. It’s true that Rogers wasn’t great for the Padres, and was eventually shipped to Milwaukee, but this move still has to be rated a failure.
Emilio Pagan was the other part of that Rogers trade. He appeared in 59 games for the Twins with 9 saves. But an 4.43 ERA and seven blown saves makes this acquisition a failure as well.
Tyler Mahle was brought in at the trade deadline. He made just four starts for the Twins before the injury bug bit him. Spencer Steer was the primary prospect sent to Cincinnati for him, and has a paltry .624 OPS in 92 at-bats for the Reds. But he’s a rookie, and Mahle was supposed to help plug the whole in a sinking ship. This trade was a failure.
Jorge Lopez came to Minnesota in May with the Orioles as one of the best closers in baseball. The Twins beat him in back-to-back games bringing into question just how good he was. They still traded for him at the deadline. Since then he’s made 23 appearances for the Twins, posting a 4.37 ERA and a bulbous 1.632 WHIP. Yet another failure.
Michael Fulmer was almost an afterthought move at the deadline, coming over from the Tigers. He’s made 26 appearances for Minnesota with a 3.70 ERA. Given the lack of expectations, this trade was fine.
The bottom line is the Twins didn’t come close to acquiring enough quality talent, especially on the pitching side, to make it through a 162 game season much less qualify for the post-season. And the fault for that lies squarely on Falvey and Levine.
In less-patient organizations, that kind of failure would result in pink slips. But that’s not how the Twins have traditionally operated, and they’ve given no indication that they’ll change their minds any time soon.
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