The balance of power is still unclear as the state inches closer to the start of the 2025 legislative session. The Minnesota Senate remains tied and a special election is now scheduled for January 28 following the death of DFL Senator Kari Dziedzic who was battling ovarian cancer.
Then there's the Minnesota House. A contested race in Scott County is still waiting for resolution. A judge has yet to rule on that case after Republican challenger Aaron Paul and the House GOP filed a lawsuit saying elections officials engaged in “deliberate, serious and material violations” of state election law when they declared incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke (DFL) the winner by 14 votes.
Add in a special election for a Roseville-area seat due to a residency challenge on Jan. 28. That means the closely divided Minnesota House puts Republicans in charge for now. They're set to have a one-vote majority when session begins Jan. 14.
"We may not know for several weeks, even beyond on the start of the session because of so many contingencies and so many possibilities that could play itself out over the next month, if not perhaps maybe a couple of months," says Hamline Political science and law professor David Schultz.
WCCO Radio Political Analyst Blois Olson says a lot could change between now and February.
"The legislature truly doesn't meet or do anything of significance until February," Olson explains. "They are scheduled to start on January 14th, but that's the first day of the primary in both the special election for the House and in Senator Dziedzic's seat. Yesterday was a House endorsing convention in Shoreview and Roseville. There is still a lot of moving pieces."
Complicating things further, a trial for State Senator Nicole Mitchell (DFL- Woodbury) is also likely begin the last week of January which may have further consequences on the legislature.
"And even during the criminal trial, it's possible for her to continue to be able to attend trial and also be available at the state legislature for being able to vote on critical pieces of legislation," says Schultz.
The special election for the Roseville seat is very likely to remain blue, with that district voting heavily in favor of the Democrat. But for now, the House has a one seat majority which means they get to select the Speaker of the House and the committee Chairs. But if the judge in Scott County calls for a new election and a Democrat wins, they might try to get back some control.
"That may not happen because the Republicans may just say, 'you know, we're happy with the way it is,' and that could lead to a very interesting scenario where even though tied, the Republicans potentially control all the critical committee chairs and the Speaker of the House," Schultz says.
New Republican Leadership
Olson is weighing in on the impact of a new party leader for Republicans as the start of the 2025 legislative session nears.
Former Wayzata City Council Member Alex Plechash is set to replace David Hann, who served as the Minnesota Republican Party chair for the past three years.
Olson says its an opportunity for significant change.
"I think the party obviously sees opportunity, but, you know, they've been mired by debt and disorganization for a long time," Olson explains. "So it'll be curious to see if he can turn things around."
Plechash is a retired Marine and a former committeeman for the Republican National Committee.
Republicans have struggled in statewide elections in Minnesota. They haven't won a state race since Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty won his second term in 2006. Republicans did make gains in some critical races in this past election after the Democrats enjoyed a trifecta of Governor, House and Senate in the last legislative session.