The Twins are coming off their best finish since 2002. They won a playoff series for the first time since the Division Series against Oakland 21 years ago and it was a tremendous performance by their pitching staff that got it done.
Now, they'll have to regroup coming into the 2024 season after Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray signed a free-agent deal Monday according to reports. And Kenta Maeda signed a deal to go to division rival Detroit.
Starting with Gray, his loss is going to be tremendously difficult to replace. There were several reports that Gray is inking a three-year, $75 million deal in St. Louis. That's a price tag the Twins front office was not even close to matching.
They made a $20 million qualifying offer to Gray but that is mostly a formality and he quickly passed on that to enter free-agency. The team knew Gray was going to demand multiple years for big dollars, and he got it from the Cardinals.
"I don't think it's a surprise to anybody," said WCCO Radio sports host Henry Lake. "Number one he wanted a multi-year deal and he was going to get that. At that point you know he was destined to end up somewhere else. I thought he had a really good two year stretch with the Twins and they're going to have to add an arm."
Twins fans fell in love with Pablo Lopez and for good reason. His start against the Houston Astros in game 2 of the ALDS was phenomenal, matching some of the postseason heroics of other Twins pitchers named Santana and Morris.
But it was Gray who was the best Twin pitcher of the 2023.
In wins and losses, Gray was a very unremarkable 8-8 in 2023 but that is really misleading. His sparkling 2.79 ERA in 32 starts (3rd in MLB) was tremendous. He allowed only 57 earned runs in 184 innings. That is productivity from a starter that you don't find in a free agent. Really, ever.
Then there is Kenta Maeda. Injured for the better part of two seasons, Maeda returned to a pretty solid form by the end of 2023. He worked mostly out of the bullpen after coming back from Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2022 season. That was followed by a muscle strain that further delayed his 2023. Once he was back, he was solid, posting a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings.
Reports say the Twins were offering Maeda a one-year, prove it contract but he took a two-year, $24 million deal with Detroit instead.
"In his time in Minnesota, they got some good years out of Maeda," says Lake on the WCCO Morning News with Vineeta Sawkar. "His first year here, he was second in the Cy Young race. He was outstanding. He had some good efforts at the end of the (2023) season where he was able to hold the team down. But two years, $24 million? I'm happy for Kenta."
That's almost $100 million for the two arms, something the Twins just didn't have the money to match. While neither of the two pitchers signing elsewhere is a surprise, it does reduce the Twins depth on the pitching staff and raises a few questions going into the high expectations they'll face from fans in 2024.
The top of the rotation is set with Lopez. There are youngsters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober who have shown there is plenty to build on. After that?
Chris Paddack is going to get a shot after performing very well in the postseason. He gave up one hit, struck out six, after facing 12 Houston Astros in the ALDS. The Twins top brass sees major stuff from the 28-year old Paddack and they think he could blossom.
For a fifth starter, the team knows Louie Varland is waiting in the wings but they'll certainly explore adding an arm before turning to Varland as their fifth. Varland would give them a tremendous option as a middle reliever and depth as a backup starter.
There are also other young, unproven arms in the organization such as David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson and Matt Canterino. Tyler Mahle, who is coming off surgery and is also a free agent, could also be in the mix if he signs with the Twins.
The Twins have been clear in saying there will not be an increase in spending this offseason, meaning don't expect major free agent signings. That makes it likely this group of arms will have the tall task of replacing Gray in the rotation, and the depth and experience they had with Maeda.
The team's biggest strength isn't a weakness going into next season, but it does not have the same depth or ability to withstand injuries, or regression, that they had in 2023.