Holy cow. Mid-30s feels really warm doesn't it? But hold on because this is just a taste on Monday.
WCCO Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas says this isn't just just going a January thaw, it's a January heat wave?
"Feel more and more confident with each model run that we'll see 40s next week," Douglas told Steve Simpson on the WCCO Morning News.
With 30s predicted all of this week, there is going to be some melting snow (what snow?) and that is going to speed up the warming says Douglas.
"Once we lose the snow, maybe an inch in your yard give or take, that'll be gone by the end of the week," Douglas says. "And then the sun's energy can go into heating the air instead of melting snow."
One challenge might be getting some sunlight through however. Douglas says there is a real challenge getting the sun to shine when it warms up like this in winter. Those clear, sunny January days are usually very cold for a reason.
"When mild Pacific air passes over cold ground, even when you don't have much snow on the ground, it can trigger low clouds and fog, and that can get in the way of near record warmth," explains Douglas.
There's still a chance that next week, likely in the back half, the sun could peek out and if it does, temperatures may soar.
"I think we're good for some upper 40s, and 50 is not out of the question, something I don't think I've ever seen in a sentence from the National Weather Service. They talked about a 'significant winter heat wave.' Forget the Polar Vortex. We're about to get a Tropical Vortex," Douglas says.
December was already the warmest on record in Minnesota history and now January, despite last week's cold snap, is going to be far above average as well as we limp through a puny Minnesota winter heavily influenced by El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
"My friend Dr. Mark Seeley, who has been helping out farmers for a long, long time, he's a meteorologist and climate historian, I asked him 'what do you think of this winter'. And he looked at me and said, 'this is probably going to be the warmest meteorological winter on record since 1872.' Even warmer than 1997-1998, that too was a significant El Nino winter. Just head-shaking warmth and I think it'll really kick in next week."
Minnesota could see a little ice, rain, freezing on contact on Thursday says Douglas who says he has low confidence it that really materializing. And that is it for precipitation this week and even through next week. It's not just the warmth this year, it's a serious lack of snow.
"The snow situation, I sympathize if you love snow, I am not in charge of that, I am a bewildered spectator," jokes Douglas. "We've had 7.3 inches for the winter. That's just about 20 inches less than normal. Last year at this time. A different ballgame. We already had 53 inches of snow. I think we'll make up for some of that, a little bit of that, later in March."
Douglas adds that even if it does snow later in the winter, it tends to quickly melt and doesn't turn out to be the "good snow" that winter sports enthusiasts enjoy.
Half a winter at best Minnesota.
FORECAST
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31, low 22.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33, low 29.
Wednesday: A small chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 36, low 31 and a slightly better chance of rain at night.
Thursday: A better chance of some rain which could freeze on contact. Cloudy, with a high near 36, low around 31.
Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 37.