Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - I have a quick history lesson before turning my attention to the team standing between the Buffalo Bills and the franchise's first Super Bowl berth in 31 years, the Kansas City Chiefs.
When Peyton Manning was having success quarterbacking the Indianapolis Colts, there was a big roadblock he had to get through to claim his first Super Bowl title: Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Manning's Colts lost their first four regular season meetings against Brady's Patriots before finally triumphing in 2005. More importantly, it was New England coming out on top in the playoffs in the AFC Championship Game in the 2004 season, and then again in the Divisional Round during the 2005 campaign.
Finally, in the 2006 season, Manning and Indianapolis knocked off Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, and went on to beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.
Welcome to the 2024 season, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing the part of Brady and the Patriots.
The Chiefs are in their seventh-straight AFC Championship Game, and gunning for a third-consecutive Super Bowl title, something Brady and the Patriots were not able to do.
Josh Allen and the Bills are the equivalent of Manning and the Colts, in this case.
Actually, as opposed to Manning, Allen and company have no problem beating Kansas City in the regular season. The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the last four meetings, including this year in Week 11, with Buffalo earning a 30-21 victory at Highmark Stadium.
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The Bills have also won the last three games played at Arrowhead Stadium. No other team in the league has beaten Mahomes four times. But all of those victories have been in the regular season.
Come playoff time, it has been a different story.
In the five regular season meetings against the Bills, Mahomes is 1-4 with 10 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But in the postseason, Mahomes is a perfect 3-0 with eight touchdown passes and no picks.
But this version of the Chiefs isn't as explosive offensively as previous teams.
Kansas City is averaging just 22 points a game, which was 15th in the NFL during the regular season (the Bills were third-best). They were 16th in total yards per-game, and averaged only 3.7 yards per-carry, which was 22nd. The Chiefs' red zone offense ended the regular season ranked 22nd (Bills were third).
Coupled with one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Chiefs offense did just enough to help them win a ton of close games. 11 of Kansas City's 15 wins were one-score games. Five of those 11 wins came by three points or less.
The Chiefs have won 16-straight one-score games going back to the 2023 regular season.
Mahomes, who hasn't turned the ball over in his last seven games going back to that loss to the Bills, accounted for 72% of the Chiefs offense this season, the highest total for any quarterback in the NFL.
Isaiah Pacheco did not play in that loss to the Bills, but he is back and forms a 1-2 punch with Kareem Hunt in the backfield.
There were signs that 35-year-old tight end Travis Kelce was slowing down this season, but his numbers have gone up over the last month.
In Kansas City's Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, Kelce broke Jerry Rice's record with a ninth career playoff game of 100-plus yards receiving.
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Kelce had only two catches for eight yards in the regular season matchup against the Bills. A repeat of that would certainly help the Bills' odds of winning on Sunday night.
Rookie Xavier Worthy led all wide receivers with 59 catches for 638 yards and six touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins, an in-season addition from the Tennessee Titans, added 41 receptions for 437 yards and four touchdowns.
The speedy Hollywood Brown also missed the game in Orchard Park in November, but has since returned to the lineup, which will keep the Bills safeties on notice.
One thing to keep in mind about their offense: There have been some issues on the offensive line, especially at the two tackle spots. Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times this season.
The Chiefs defense has been great. They gave up the fewest points in the NFL, an average of 19 a game. The Bills are the only team that reached the 30-point mark against defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's group.
Linebacker Nick Bolton led the Chiefs in tackles, and is a stat filler. Bolton also had three sacks, 11 tackles for loss, six passes defended, an interception, a forced fumble and a pair of fumble recoveries in the regular season.
Defensive end George Karlaftis led the Kansas City pass rush with eight sacks.
The Chiefs are also strong on the interior of the defensive line with Jones and Tershawn Wharton at defensive tackle.
The secondary is led by Trent McDuffie, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. He had 13 passes defended and two picks for the Chiefs in the regular season.
Kansas City got a big boost when No. 2 corner Jaylen Watson returned from an injury sustained in Week 7.
Harrison Butker was 29-of-31 on extra points this season. If the game comes down to a long field goal attempt, you should know he was just 2-for-5 from 50-plus yards.
Bills kicker Tyler Bass is a perfect 5-for-5 from 50-plus yards, including the two playoff games.
The Chiefs like to utilize man coverage. According to Next Gen Stats, Kansas City had their outside corners in press man coverage on 52% of the snaps, the highest rate in the NFL.
They also blitzed 36% of the time, which was fifth-highest in the league.
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Bonus Notes:
- The Bills will attempt to snap a seven-game losing streak in road playoff games. Four of those have come in the Sean McDermott era (Jacksonville, Houston and two to the Chiefs). The last road playoff victory came in the 1992 season when the Bills beat the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Championship Game.
- In eight career games against Kansas City, Allen has 2,511 total yards, 22 total touchdowns and just five turnovers.
- In the three playoff games, Allen has averaged 343 total yards a game. He has has nine touchdowns and only one turnover.
- The Bills have won the takeaway/keep away battle in 21 straight-games, the longest such streak in the NFL since 1960.
- The Bills have not turned the ball over in their last four postseason games.
- Bass has been successful on his last 10 field goal attempts going back to the Detroit Lions game in Week 15. He is 5-for-5 so far in these playoffs.