One name in the grab bag of available quarterback options for the Patriots during the past two offseasons was 2015 first overall pick Jameis Winston. Bill Belichick signing Winston was an idea noted F.O.B. (Friend of Belichick) Michael Lombardi floated on the WEEI airwaves toward the end of last season.
But, it was never going to happen.
Belichick runs a tight ship, and a crucial part of that ship is turnovers. The most recent offender was rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who impressed in the preseason but whose single leather-to-turf infraction in Week 1 landed him on the inactive list this past Sunday.
Turnover differential correlates to wins and losses more than any statistic in football. In fact, teams that win the turnover battle win the game 78% of the time. It’s no surprise that Belichick’s Patriots have a monopoly on the statistic. Only twice since 2010 have the Patriots finished outside the top five in turnover differential, but they were still top ten in both of those seasons (2013 and 2017, years which invoke specters of bad defense for Patriots fans).
That’s why I fought Lombardi’s fire with significantly colder fire when I suggested the Patriots go after Marcus Mariota last February. And it’s why Belichick seemingly didn’t even consider Winston and instead stood pat in the NFL Draft, selecting a 23-year old version of Tom Brady in Mac Jones: the anti-Winston.
In Jones the Patriots have a quarterback who, through two weeks of his rookie season, has been safer than abstinence. Jones’ 5.6 average intended air yards is fifth in the NFL behind only Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jacoby Brissett (Belichick has a type, after all). But more important is that Jones has yet to turn the ball over, a recipe that when sautéed with a strong run game and marinated with stout defense is a winning concoction.
Winston, on the other hand, has shown his mercurial nature in the first two weeks of the season. Winston finished Week 1’s dismantling of the Green Bay Packers with five touchdown passes, an 88.9% adjusted completion percentage, and ZERO turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. In Week 2, the Saints trailed early and a distressed Winston reverted to the devil in his bloodstream, completing only 50% of his passes and turning the ball over twice.
As the Patriots trailed the Dolphins in Week 1, Jones remained true to the anti-Winston mold. The Patriots were in position to win the game but lost due to an untimely fumble from Damien Harris.
This may be the double-edged sword in having either Winston or Jones under center. Jones isn’t letting it rip down the field when he may have a chance to. He’s looked good when he does let it rip, but one could argue he isn't doing it enough to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll be able to do it when the game is on the line and the Patriots need to move the ball with the clock ticking.
It's gonna be real fun when Mac Jones starts noticing these big plays open down field. Missed Jonnu Smith week 1 vs Miami and Hunter Henry for a TD yesterday vs NYJ. pic.twitter.com/Tls0B1LS56
— ✯✯✯✯✯ (@FTBVids_YT) September 20, 2021
Winston’s 8.6 average intended airyards through two weeks is by far the lowest of his career, should it hover around that mark the rest of the season -- but it’s still in the top half of the league. Sean Payton may have neutered Winston’s aggressive tendencies a bit, but when the going gets tough Winston still throws with reckless abandon. And a quarterback like that never would have meshed with Belichick’s blueprint for the Patriots.
Here are three more aspects of the New Orleans Saints to keep an eye on this Sunday...
The Real McCoy
Michael Thomas started the year on the PUP list and won’t be eligible to return until the Saints’ bye week in Week 6. His absence has left a void of opportunity at the pass-catching positions. Tight end Adam Trautman is the only Saint not named Alvin Kamara to receive more than three targets in either of the team’s first two games.
Also significant was the injury to center Erik McCoy in Week 1. With backup center Will Clapp already injured, New Orleans slid right guard Cesar Ruiz to center and inserted something called Calvin Throckmorton at right guard. The results were borderline disastrous.
Week 1 saw Winston pressured ten times and hit twice without being sacked. Winston’s protection also afforded him a lengthy 3.14 seconds to throw. Week 2, however, saw Winston pressured 17 times -- dropbacks on which he went 3-of-11 for 43 yards and two interceptions, per PFF.
NFL Media's Tom Pelissero reports McCoy could be out until the Saints’ bye week in Week 6.
Payton’s Place
The Saints defense is shrouded in mystery after two weeks. Not only are half of them on injured reserve or PUP, but it’s unclear if they’re the defense who held the Packers to a field goal in what will be looked back on as a de facto preseason game for the Packers or the defense that Sam Darnold lit up in the first half on Sunday.
With edge rusher Marcus Davenport headed to IR it’ll be Cameron Jordan and rookie Payton Turner leading the pass rushing charge for the Saints. Turner led the Saints with three pressures and a sack in Week 2, per PFF, but was penalized twice. Linebacker Demario Davis is off to an All-Pro start to the season, while rookie defensive back Paulson Adebo let up nine catches for ninety yards on Sunday.
I Write Tragedies, Not Sins
The Saints have essentially been on the road for a month. Hurricane Ida and its aftermath have put the team on the road likely until Week 4. This really only impacted their Week 1 matchup with the Packers, which had to be moved to Jacksonville, but players and coaches have been on the road and away from their families for an extended period of time. Not only that, but the team had a breakthrough case of coronavirus rip through a third of the coaching staff, presumably after a wildly unsanitary game of beer pong in the team hotel. Eight coaches in total were unable to attend Sunday’s loss to the Panthers.
Other Storylines:
-- Taysom Hill has been classified as an endangered species in 2021, notching five total touches in two games.
-- It’s very unclear who the Saints’ top tight end is. Adam Trautman had six targets in Week 1, while Juwan Johnson had two touchdowns on two redzone targets. Trautman had no targets this past week while Johnson had three.
-- Oft-injured linebacker Kwon Alexander was placed on IR last week after playing 60% of the defensive snaps in Week 1.
-- Cornerback Marshon Lattimore chipped a bone in his thumb in Week 1 and did not play in Week 2.
-- Marcus Williams was in fact the guilty whiffer of Stefon Diggs that led to the Minneapolis Miracle and is still the Saints’ starting free safety. He’s actually turned into a pretty good starter, too.
-- Former Patriots Chris Hogan is one of multiple irrelevant receivers on the Saints’ roster.
