MLB has officially expanded the postseason for 2020, expanding to eight teams in each league with the top two teams in each division, plus the two teams with the next-best records in each league, qualifying for the playoffs.
There have been years where we lament not having more teams in the postseason – just last year, the Indians won 93 games and watched October baseball on TV – but by and large, it takes a lot for eight teams in each league to be viable; after all, according to Elias, if eight teams qualified for the playoffs in each league during the Wild Card era (1995-2019), 46 teams at or below .500 would have made the postseason, and there would have been only three seasons in which all playoff teams would have had winning records: 2000, 2003 and 2009.
Anything goes this year, but let’s look deeper into this phenomenon: assuming the same seeding (three division winners 1-3, next three teams 4-6, 7-8 based on record) and a chalk bracket, these five series would have been ridiculous examples of why this is a bad idea in general – and even worse, because the leagues weren’t balanced until Houston moved to the AL in 2013, these all happened within the last seven seasons.
2019: No. 1 Houston Astros vs No. 8 Texas RangersCheating or not, the 2019 Astros won 107 games and the Rangers won 78, finishing 29 games behind Houston in the AL West. However, Texas was the eighth-best AL squad last year, so even though they were 6-13 against their in-state rivals, they would’ve had a chance to win two of three at the Juice Box and go on to face whoever won a three-game series between a 97-win Rays team and 96-win Indians team. Yeah, that’s really better.
2017: The entire postseasonIn the American League, three 80-82 teams would have made the postseason, with the Angels getting the sixth seed based on finishing second in the West, and it’s so absurd we’re not even going to do the research on who would win the tiebreaker between the Rays and Royals. On the NL side? The Rockies, who finished third in the West but were the second Wild Card, would’ve been the seven seed – behind the 86-76 Brewers, who they were a game better than, and the 77-85 Marlins. Yes, 77 wins was good enough for second in the East. Oh, and the 83-79 Cards would’ve been left out for it. But, based on things that have come to light, we can just scrap this one anyway, right?
2016: No. 1 Chicago Cubs vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh PiratesNot as bad as 2019, but back in ’16, the destiny-bound Cubbies won 103 and finished 17.5 games up in the Central. The third-place team in that division won 78 games and finished 25 back – and you guessed it, that was the Pirates. But hey, this was another year the Marlins would’ve made it, this time with 79 wins!
2015: The National League gets weirderAs it was, the format of the playoffs meant that in the NL, a 98-win team faced a 97-win team in one game for the right to face a 100-win team, while the other Division Series had teams that won 92 and 90. And, as it was, 10 teams in the AL won 80 games, so even in an expanded year, two viable teams would’ve missed out. But if the playoffs were expanded, those 97-win Cubs would’ve been a seven seed – the 84-win Giants and 83-win Nats would’ve been five and six – and the eighth seed would’ve been the 79-win Diamondbacks. Translation: because the AL won the All-Star Game in 2015, 97-win Chicago could’ve gone all the way without home field advantage, so long as Arizona wasn’t their NLCS opponent, and could’ve faced an 80-win team in the World Series.
2013: The National League is weird, part two (or one?)Nine AL teams finished with 85 wins or more in 2013, so that would’ve been fine. The NL, though? The Wild Cards both came from the Central, but the 90-win Reds would’ve gone from fifth seed to seventh, behind the 86-76 Nationals and 81-81 Diamondbacks – but they would’ve been fourteen games better than the eighth-seeded 76-86 Padres. It’s tough enough the Yankees won 85 games but finished fourth in the East and seven games out of a playoff spot – imagine if Yankees fans had to watch two worse teams play in the NL postseason?
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