The 2020 NBA Draft is tentatively scheduled for October 15. The Knicks have three picks in this year’s draft. They own their own first round pick which will land anywhere between one and ten depending on NBA Lottery results on (tentatively) August 25. They also own the Clippers first round pick from the Marcus Morris trade, with their third pick coming from the Hornets in the Willy Hernangomez trade.
Over the next few months, I’ll evaluate potential Knicks picks at those different areas of the draft. I’ll start with a player the Knicks will only have a chance to draft if they move into the top three: Anthony Edwards.
Anthony Edwards
College: Georgia
Year: Freshman
Position: Shooting Guard
Height: 6’5
Weight: 225 pounds
Wingspan: 6’9
Stats
19.1 points
5.2 rebounds
2.8 assists
1.3 steals
40.2% FG
77.2% FT
29.4% 3PT
52.0 TS
47.3% EFG
5.3 FTA per game
7.7 3PTA per game
Physical Profile: Edwards is an elite athlete with NBA level size, length, explosiveness, strength, leaping ability and athleticism. He can navigate where he wants to on the court, change direction, and get to the rim whenever he wants to against college athletes.
Offense: Edwards is a pure scorer. He can put the ball in the basket in every way imaginable. His pull-up game is smooth and should translate well to the NBA. In 32 games he shot 147 jump shots off the dribble, which comes to about 4.5 per game. Far too often, he eschewed getting to the hoop and settled for tough pull-up jumpers (36.7% of his shots), which is part of the reason he only shot 40.2% from the field and has poor advanced efficiency measurements. He shot only 28.6% of the time on pull-ups according to Synergy, which ranked in the 42nd percentile of college players. His efficiency numbers should improve as he learns to take higher percentage shots.
Edwards can drive and get to the rim to finish or draw fouls. He has a developing euro-step and can take long strides to alter the pace of his drives to force contact with defenders or get around them. He can quickly rise above the rim to finish. He shot 53.6% around the rim, which put him in the 55th percentile. There are some plays where he either tries to avoid contact completely or just run into the defender, which can lead to awkward attempts. With his thick build and strength, he should be able to more regularly leverage his size to draw contact and finish around the rim.
Edwards was asked to play point guard a bit at Georgia, and you see his passing skills flash at different times. He passes very well in transition and can find the open man off the dribble with either hand. He will miss open players from time to time, and instead force a contested jump shot. He wasn’t asked to run a lot of pick and roll at Georgia but when he did, he was effective as a passer and scorer. He has it in him to be a good playmaker, but too often he doesn’t utilize those skills enough.
Edwards has everything teams want in a player’s toolbox to succeed in the NBA. He can get to the hoop, shoot off the dribble, and pass on the move. The question is whether those skills can be molded into an efficient player. Can he be more consistently aggressive going to the basket instead of settling for jump shots? Can he make the right play more consistently? Can he learn to leverage his athleticism to be more efficient? He needs to get put with the right coach in the NBA to give him the best chance to solve some of these issues.
Defense: Edwards has the athleticism to be a great defender, and he flashed the ability to stay in front of point guards, shooting guards and small forwards when guarding on the ball. He can move his feet and to stay in front of the ball, use his length to knock the ball away and explosiveness to block shots. The issue he runs into is that he isn’t always focused and engaged where he does these things consistently.
He can fall into the trap of reaching in while guarding a ball-handler rather than moving his feet. Off the ball, he can lose track of his man on cuts, leave him open for a three point shot, or not box him out. He is a good rebounder when he wants to be but that doesn’t happen all the time. His defensive rotations are inconsistent and sometimes it doesn’t look like he is putting forth full effort with maximum hustle on that end of the floor.
The Swing Skill: There are no questions when it comes to Anthony Edwards tools. He has it all. But can he turn himself into a winning basketball player that improves his shot selection and becomes more efficient offensively? Can he engage himself on every play and be more consistent decision-maker, passer, defender, and rebounder? Will he do the little things to help a team win games or will he just be a volume scorer that drives his head coach nuts because he never realizes his full potential?
High End Outcome: He becomes a more efficient player and becomes a legit number one option as a NBA wing scorer. He also develops defensively and becomes a two-way player and gets multiple All-Star and All-NBA awards.
Low-End Outcome: He never commits defensively and becomes a liability. He falls in love with the pull-up jumpshot and remains a low-efficient ball hog on offense that might be useful as a spark player off the bench, but little else.
Conclusion: In a draft where there are few players with the upside to be a legitimate star, Edwards has it. His shot selection might drive fans nuts, but the chance he becomes a special player is real. His tools give him a higher upside than RJ Barrett, the Knicks third overall pick in 2019.
Prediction: Top three pick.