Jacob deGrom’s latest ailment, this time shoulder tightness, adds to the puzzling trajectory of nagging injuries that have flared up as the Mets ace has risen to levels of dominance compared to the peaks of Bob Gibson and Pedro Martinez.
DeGrom was indeed on a Gibson-like pace last season before shoulder, forearm, and elbow issues derailed his 2021 campaign, ending it entirely in July. Now, after flashing his vintage dominant stuff in spring training, his Opening Day start is in jeopardy after undergoing an MRI on his shoulder.
What has led to the frequency of deGrom’s physical issues? Brandon Tierney believes he may have found a culprit, and it lies in deGrom’s pitch usage and velocity trends.
“In 2016, his third year, he threw his average fastball at 93.4 mph,” Tierney explained during Friday’s show. “Then it went, in succession, to 95.2, 96 flat, to 96.9, to 98.6, to 99.3. That is six straight years of incremental bump in terms of the cheese.
“Last year, he threw his fastball 53,4 percent of the time. The previous year was only 44 percent. That was a big tick in usage dependency.”
Tierney believes the sudden uptick in velocity means deGrom is throwing harder than ever before with each passing year, as his arm only ages, leaving him vulnerable to strains and fatigue, despite his smooth delivery and harmonious mechanics.
“How many players in baseball history have gone six, seven straight years where their average fastball has increased?” Tierney asked.
DeGrom’s career trajectory is certainly unique. He was already 26 years old when he made his big-league debut, and after a promising All-Star season in 2015, didn’t reach his current levels of dominance until 2018, when he led the league with a 1.70 ERA in a career-high 217 innings of work. He was elite again in 2019, pitching to a 2.43 ERA in 204 innings of work, his second Cy Young Award honor in as many seasons. But after the shortened 2020 season, ailments began to pile up.
Could it have been a result of a struggle to get back on track after the weirdness that was the 2020 campaign? DeGrom, aside from leaving after two innings in a game against the Phillies in September of that season due to a hamstring spasm, stayed healthy throughout that campaign. Could his stark increases in velocity have led to his issues in 2021, and now prior to the 2022 season?
It’s hard to say and even harder to prove, but, as Tierney observed, such a dramatic and consistent rise in velocity is incredibly rare. Charlie Morton is the first name that comes to mind as a possible comparison, as the righty saw his velocity, and efficiency, take off once he joined the Astros in 2017. The three years prior to coming to Houston, Morton’s average fastball was 92.3, 92.8, and 91.6, respectively. By 2017, his average heater was coming in at 95.7 mph, then 96.1 mph in 2018. He was already 33 years old in 2017, the same age deGrom is now.
As for other comps, they’re hard to find. A 2020 study by MLB.com’s Jason Bernard showed that only eight starting pitchers saw their fastball velocity increase every year for at least four straight years, but when incorporating age into the equation, only five pitchers were left (this was since pitch tracking became available in 2008).
Morton was one of them, as was German Marquez, Kenta Maeda, Alex Cobb, and Chris Capuano. But the velocity those pitchers reached was nothing like deGrom, who averaged 98.7 mph in 2020, while Marquez, the closest to deGrom in terms of velocity, was averaging 95.6 mph in 2020 after averaging 93.7 in 2016. None of those pitchers saw a four-year increase as great as deGrom, who threw even harder in 2021.
So, deGrom is obviously a rare breed, but it’s still hard to affirmatively say that the velocity spike is a result of injury. Marquez is just 26 years old but didn’t face any injury issues after his velocity increase, as he tossed 180 innings in 2021, his first All-Star season. Morton has thrown at least 167 innings in his last three seasons (he tossed 38 in 2020, when there were only 60 games). Cobb was limited to 93.1 innings last season due to wrist inflammation, while Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. So some pitchers with ever-increasing velocities have faced some physical problems, which could be a concern for Mets fans.
Adding to that concern for Tierney are the nature of deGrom’s secondary pitches, which have made him the best pitcher in the game, but also may have made him more susceptible to injury.
“The slider last year was 91 mph, that’s why nobody touches him,” Tierney said. “His curveball usage rate went from 2.6 percent to 0.3. Really abandoned the pitch. His changeup went from 17 percent in almost every year, or at least 16, to 8.9 percent a year ago.”
But for Tierney, the concern all comes back to the fastball, as he is not just throwing it harder than ever, but more than ever.
“Not only is it harder, but it’s also more frequent,” Tierney said.
Follow WFAN's midday team on Twitter: @TikiandTierney, @TikiBarber, @BrandonTierney, and @TheHoffWFAN
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