Shohei Ohtani’s set to be a free agent at the end of the year, and there will be 29 teams looking to pry him away from the Angels, even if many of those really can’t afford him.
Both the Yankees and Mets, in theory, could add Ohtani to the payroll without too much of a blip, and they’d be getting a guy who leads the league in home runs, RBI, and slugging, and is also a Cy Young candidate.
On Tuesday, Tiki read a write-up from Spotrac that said Ohtani as just a starter would be worth six years and $202 million, while Ohtani the hitter is worth nine years and $326 million – the Judge deal, basically.
Could Ohtani, because of his two-way talent, get in the neighborhood of $500 million entering his age 29 season next year?
“I think the quick answer is yes…but imagine he signed a deal for six years as a pitcher and nine as a hitter? That would be wild…and that’s why he’s worth $69 million a year,” BT said.
“In theory, he’ll stop being an elite pitcher before he stops being an elite hitter,” Tiki replied. “If I was his agent, I might actually try a hybrid deal like that – it would be crazy, but it would show his real value as the best player in baseball. His swing is just gorgeous…when he hits the ball, it’s an intentional uppercut, but his fundamentals are amazing, and his ability to be in the moment all the time is miraculous.”
But is that worth shattering the records for both annual and total salary?
“You can say he’s worth $40 or $42 million, but that extra $18 million he’s going to generate for your franchise makes him worth that $60 million,” BT said. “If you want to quibble over that, okay, but he’s never thrown more than 166 innings, and he’s 28, about to be 29, so he’s not just starting this journey. It’s a very similar trajectory to Judge, and maybe there is a little more pitching in the tank, because he hasn’t throw a ton of pitches. He did have Tommy John surgery, but he’s fully repaired and ready to roll. It might happen again, only time will dictate, but we’ll see.”
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He’d fill two needs for the Mets, but with a payroll north of $300 million already and only about $50 million coming off the books, could the Mets really afford that?
“Over the last couple months or so, we’ve all been talking about Ohtani to the Mets,” Tiki said, but BT thinks there’s ‘no chance’ he comes here, and Hoff gives it a small chance.
Tiki is with BT.
“I think the Dodgers, who have a ton of money next season, will pay him $70 million a year if they have to,” Tiki said.
“And they will once again have one of the biggest foreign imports ever, like Fernando Valenzuela and Hideo Nomo,” BT said. “The Yankees will be in play and the Mets will try, and the Angels will try to retain him, but I think he will be a Dodger.”
Even worse: when Hoff asked BT if he thinks the Dodgers will outbid the Mets, Brando’s response was this: “He may want that destination so much more than here that he may not chase every penny.”
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Ohtani is indeed making oodles of money in endorsements, and that can only grow if he stays in the Los Angeles area, which is just as big as NYC and already has the foundation laid.
Here’s the interesting thought about that, though: some believe the Mets hired Billy Eppler, and are keeping him around, simply because of his relationship with Ohtani when he was with the Angels – and at this point, given the Mets’ swoon, is that fire growing?
“It’s not a question of him choosing the Dodgers over them, and I don’t think that the Mets will be outbid – Steve Cohen will put the money out because that’s the guy,” Hoff said. “I’ve always said this is why Eppler is here.”
“My response to that is if that’s the case, why wasn’t Eppler their first choice?” BT responded. “That’s why it never made sense to me: if they targeted Billy because of his relationship with Ohtani, why didn’t they hire him right away? If the other guys you hired worked out, he wouldn’t be here!
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