Gerrit Cole has now allowed 29 home runs this season, tied for the second-most in his career, behind only the 31 he gave up his final year in Pittsburgh – and even worse, his HR/9 rate, 1.43, is ahead of the 1.37 he had in that “record” 2017 season.
The question, though, is this: why?
“I’m processing it, and to be honest, I don’t really have a good answer for you,” Cole stammered when asked about it after Sunday’s start, in which he gave up two home runs to the Brewers. “In some cases, it’s kind of remarkable. But I need to be better.”
Cole has allowed multiple homers in back-to-back games, eight over his last five starts, and 11 dingers in 57 innings over his last eight starts since August 1 – a 1.74 per 9 pace. And like Cole said, some of it is remarkable – like Sunday, when he walked two batters in the first inning before Kolten Wong took him deep.
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“You just get into a situation with Wong, the bottom line is you’re asking for trouble walking two guys in the first,” Cole said. “I haven’t had one of these days in a while where I was just so wild, and didn’t know where the velocity was coming from. I didn’t feel like I was over-amped up, but I was wild, and you’re asking for trouble in that situation. I guess my first instinct would be to not put yourself in those positions where you can give up a lot of damage.”
Now, there are some brand names in that group of 11 homers: Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, and Shohei Ohtani.
But, there are also names like Reese McGuire (who was homerless this season until last Tuesday), rookie Triston Casas, and Jonah Bride, who hit his first career homer off Cole in Oakland.
Cole has no explanation, other than he thought he made good pitches.
“These last few starts…McGuire good pitch, Casas good pitch and his first swing all-time off me, this rookie today (Milwaukee’s Tyrone Taylor), good first swing on a fastball six inches above the zone after two sliders…I don’t really know,” Cole said.
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Milwaukee, at least, he pins on the fact that the Brewers are third in MLB in home runs, and the way they score – the “BBs and a blast” current version of “bloop and a blast” – is very similar to the Yankees.
“They’re third in homers, and they’re not a high average team like Minnesota was a few weeks ago,” Cole said, adding that he wasn’t trying to “diss” the Brewers’ average. “Their OPS numbers are solid to above average throughout the lineup, which means they’re slugging and getting on base in other ways than just racking up hits. It’s probably not an uncommon inning for them to have two walks and a homer – that’s how they score, and very similar to how we score too. They have guys with 30 homers and guys talented enough to hit balls like that.”
Still, it’s a bizarre juxtaposition right now for Cole, who has three, maybe four starts left this season, and could allow a career high in homers in the same season he breaks the Yankees’ franchise record for strikeouts in a season (his 236 are 12 shy of Ron Guidry’s record 248 in 1978).
In the three true outcomes era, both are more than likely…and it’s going to be even worse down the stretch.
“Guys are hunting in general, as we’re at the part of the year where everyone has their long guns out looking for October,” Cole said. “Maybe I need a little camouflage, but I have to figure something out.”
Follow Lou DiPietro on Twitter: @LouDiPietroWFAN
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