Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has played 32 games so far in his NFL career, including one playoff game. That’s the equivalent of exactly two full NFL seasons.
The first 16 games (essentially his first full season), stretching from opening week his rookie year through Week 4 of 2019, he completed 54.99% of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.
Over his next 16 games, Allen had one of the most remarkable turnarounds you could ever imagine. In fact, it may actually be the most incredible statistical turnaround in NFL history from the first 16 games to next 16 of a quarterback’s career. Over that time period, Allen completed 62.13% of his passes, with 29 touchdowns and only four picks.
Through statistical analysis and research via Pro Football Reference, not only was Allen’s touchdown-to-interception ratio jump unheard of, but throughout the history of the game, Allen is one of only 15 quarterbacks to throw at least 29 touchdowns in Games 17 through 32. What’s even more incredible is that he has the fewest interceptions of every one of them over that time.
Think about that for a moment. For a player who threw 18 interceptions his first 16 games in the league, Allen has thrown the fewest interceptions of any quarterback - ever - with, at least, even as few as 18 touchdowns in his next 16 games!
Allen often refers to the game against the New England Patriots in Week 4 last year as a defining moment for him. So it's probably no coincidence that game was the 16th of his career, the end of that first “season.” It was a figurative, and literal, turning of the page for him.
Both teams were 3-0 heading into that game. Allen had thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions on the young season. He had already engineered two fourth quarter comeback wins over those first three games. He was completing over 64% of his passes. So there were already signs he was making improvements from his rookie season.
But then it all unraveled.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick confused the Bills quarterback, forcing him to make poor decisions and throws in a low-scoring, defensive contest. The Bills had trailed 13-0, but only 16-10 in the fourth quarter when Allen was hit and had to leave the game after being placed in concussion protocol. The Bills ultimately lost.
Maybe Allen would have taken them down the field and scored the game-winning touchdown had he stayed in the game. We’ll never know that, but we do know that his poor decision-making was a big reason the Bills were even down in the first place. He finished the game completing only 46.4% of his throws, no touchdown passes (one rushing) and three costly interceptions.
Allen returned the next week to start against the Tennessee Titans and led the Bills on, yet, another fourth quarter game-winning drive. He didn’t play particularly spectacular, but it’s what he didn’t do that mattered most: He didn’t make bad decisions. He didn’t try to win the game himself when things weren’t going great, especially after the Titans had tied the game. He did throw one interception in that game, but also two touchdowns and completed close to 72% of his passes, his second-highest total all last season.
From there, Allen hasn’t looked back. His efficiency and decision-making hasn’t just gotten better, it’s skyrocketed like we’ve never seen before from a player, considering where he was and where he is now.
How did this happen? What made that Patriots game such a turning point? How did Allen go from many wondering if he'd ever be the true franchise QB the Bills drafted him to be when they made him the seventh overall pick, to league MVP candidate, in just 16 games?
I asked him to explain it.
“I think it was a mindset change, for sure,” he said. “After that game, I had numerous talks with [offensive coordinator Brian] Daboll, [head coach Sean] McDermott, and [general manager Brandon] Beane. I made a vow to them, and I’ll keep that in-house, that I’d be a better quarterback and do things the right way. This isn’t just me doing it, though. It’s been a small army, between Daboll and [quarterbacks coach Ken] Dorsey, and the front office bringing the guys they brought in, and in the offseason and working with Jordan Palmer, and having guys like Sam [Darnold] and Kyle [Allen] to compete with on the field. It’s been a long process. I’ve still got a long way to go. There’s no way that I’m saying I’ve arrived or I’m there. I know I’ve got to continue to work on stuff and keep finding ways where I can try to be the best quarterback and best teammate I can be for the Bills.”
Allen returns to the city and stadium where the most improbable of transformations started on Tuesday night. He’ll start his next 16 games right where the last 16 started - in Nashville against the Titans at Nissan Stadium. And he has every intention on maintaining that same mindset that’s allowed him to make one of the most remarkable turnarounds in league history.
“I’ve still got to remind myself,” he said. “There’s the hero ball, as some say, something I’ve got to continue to work on. I think I’ve been better with it this year. There are still a couple plays here or there that I get carried away and the gunslinger comes out, but just being smart with the football and playing situational football. Kudos to coach McDermott. In our team meetings, that’s the majority of what he preaches to this team, and showing us different situations and how we’re supposed to handle them and in turn helps us win football games, so just kind of doing what I’m told.”
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