For many of us, fantasy football is a year-round activity.
“Dynasty” leagues’ offseasons can be more interesting than the seasons themselves, with trades and each year’s rookie draft. There are fun playoff tournaments to keep the action alive in January and February. And for those interested in big stakes, there are high-limit leagues drafting in Las Vegas and New York in the days leading up to Week 1.
For others, the season runs about as long as the NFL season itself – which means interest in that home league draft probably is just now kicking in. Camps are open everywhere, and the Hall of Fame Game to commence the preseason is only one week away.
If you’re in Group 2, just starting to think about your draft, here are a few trends from the year to date that could help you prepare. (All average draft position data taken from draftsharks.com.)
Paying up for Allen and Diggs:
The Buffalo Bills aren’t only your favorite team anymore. They’re also, at least in terms of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, fantasy darlings.
Allen put up QB1 numbers in a spectacular 2020 season that everyone in Western New York is ready to see him repeat. I don’t expect the same insane level of productivity, but, of course, it’s reasonable to think he’ll be among the top quarterbacks. His rushing production over his career takes a lot of risk out of the equation.
That expectation is also a popular one. Allen is consistently the second quarterback picked in drafts and his ADP (average draft position) is 3.5.
Diggs, the NFL’s leader in both receptions and yards last year, is even pricier. He goes, on average, at the first pick of Round 2, the third receiver taken behind Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams.
Whether you draft Allen or Diggs comes down to how you want to build your roster. Most players like to load up on running backs early, and drafting these Bills will challenge you by avoiding that strategy.
I’m fine, myself, with Diggs early in Round 2, as most of my teams won’t start running back-running back. As for Allen I’m not expecting too many shares. I’d rather load up on backs and receivers in early rounds and draft my quarterback later.
If you’re drafting with Bills fans, get ready for Diggs and Allen to go quickly.
About that early running back haul...:
I’ve written fantasy columns occasionally here for a couple of years now, and I’ve mentioned the fear of finding quality running backs past the very early rounds of drafts. That fear is real. There’s logic underneath it, and in most drafts you see plenty of players get their two starting running backs right away.
There are, however, no rules against going a different direction, of course.
It might even pay off.
The advantage afforded by the very top receivers can be massive. And while running backs are famous for how they thin out in drafts, somewhat the same point can be made about receivers. In the middle rounds, you’re looking mostly at second and third options in teams’ passing games.
Before this year, I haven’t spent much time learning about or considering this strategy, known as “Zero RB” or “Modified Zero RB” in fantasy circles. But a lot of smart people advocate for it. I’m not writing here to break ground on the subject, just perhaps open your eyes to the potential in that strategy.
This year, for the first time, mine are open on the subject.
What about tight end?:
Many leagues I play in are known as “tight end premium,” which gives tight ends extra credit for receptions. At the popular site FFPC, the standard is PPR (point per-reception) and tight end premium (1.5 PPR for tight ends).
Even without going to that extent, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has wedged his way into Round 1 (ADP 1.9). Kelce has been the league’s most productive tight end for years running, and – at least not yet – we don’t have signs of slowdown. He, along with Hill, appear to remain safe and prolific first options in the outstanding Kansas City offense.
Raiders tight end Darren Waller, interestingly, has joined George Kittle of the 49ers as early-round options, with ADPs of 3.2 and 3.4 respectively. They stand together on a second tier behind Kelce.
It remains interesting after that as Falcons rookie Kyle Pitts is going at pick 5.1. Rookie tight ends don’t often produce much, but Pitts is considered such a special prospect that people see him as an exception to the rule.
Shortly thereafter, you have two other favorites at the position in Baltimore’s Mark Andrews (5.7) and Detroit’s T.J. Hockenson (6.4).
All these options are fine. It really comes down, again, to how you want to build your team. Drafting any of these tight ends comes at a significant price, as that starter at another position will have to wait. For me, the decision of when to draft a tight end can hinge on where I’m picking in the order.
I was honored to take part in the recent FFPC “Pros vs. Joes” contest, a draft of industry analysts and successful high-stakes players. My partner Adam Krautwurst of DraftSharks drew and picked the 1.01 slot. This was a tight end-premium league, and I felt that where we drafted a tight end was a huge decision to make.
It wasn’t going to be Kelce at 1.01. Because of the effect tight end premium has on scoring, there was no chance at 2.12 for Waller or Kittle – both gone. Likewise, Pitts, Hockenson and Andrews were all taken by our turns at 4.12 and 5.01.
So, now what?
We decided on Tyler Higbee of the Rams, hoping to build a “stack” of players of the Los Angeles offense (which we eventually did). This is about in drafts when tight end gets tough to handicap. If you have a favorite on this tier or later, someone you think is highly undervalued, this is your play in drafts, as you avoid the top-six guys. If you don’t, shoot your shot on one of the stars.
(Feel free to check out the Pros vs. Joes draft board, if interested. You may recognize the names Sigmund Bloom and Evan Silva from their appearances on WGR over the years.)
Running quarterbacks have changed the game:
For many years, running quarterbacks were the exception. Outliers. Most guys could do one or the other – pass or run – and fantasy variance and strategy were small-time issues.
Now the game has changed, and fantasy has changed with it.
If you’re not getting good-to-great rushing numbers from your quarterback, you’re running uphill in your weekly matchups.
Let’s go back to Allen. The Bills quarterback has rushed for more than 1,500 yards and has totaled an insane 25 rushing touchdowns in his three seasons (not to mention one as a receiver).
Lamar Jackson, quintessentially, stands out in this area, with 1,000-yard rushing seasons in both 2019 and 2020. If a passing touchdown is worth four points in your league, 40 yards rushing by a quarterback is the equivalent in fantasy points. Even if a passing touchdown is worth six points, players like Jackson, Allen, Kyler Murray and several others are, in a way of looking at it, adding fantasy touchdowns to their weekly stats by their rushing.
Two of the five quarterbacks drafted in 2021 are standout runners – Trey Lance in San Francisco and Justin Fields in Chicago. There’s a question of whether either Lance or Fields will start for their respective teams Week 1, but there’s no way those teams traded up for these guys to have them spend too long on the sidelines. They’ll play, and if their passing performance isn’t so bad that they get benched, they should offer premium value in fantasy.
Hesitation about their status as starters is why each is outside of the top-20 quarterbacks in ADP (Fields is 21 at 14.1, Lance 22 at 14.6). These guys, though, are part of the reason I’m not drafting quarterbacks early very often. If I do draft a, say, top-six quarterback, I may not draft another. If I don’t, and I end up in the next group (Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, e.g.) I love the idea of adding Fields or Lance to my team.
There’s a reason why Jalen Hurts, an iffy starting candidate in Philadelphia, is going earlier in drafts (QB11) than last year’s first overall NFL pick, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow (QB13). Burrow is more the pocket prototype, while Hurts will do damage on the ground.
----------
Good luck in your drafts! It’s a great time of year. Feel free to email me at schopp@wgr550.com with any questions throughout the season.